The History of the Academy Awards: A Guess at Best Picture 6-10

Almost Famous (2000)

With the recent change in the Academy Awards, upping the number of Best Picture nominees from 5 to 10, it calls for a look at Academy history. The first thing to remember is that the number of nominees fluctuated in the early years. It started with 3 (plus 3 for Best Production), then went up to 5 the next year, changed to 8 in 1931-32, went up to 10 the next year, up to 12 the year after that, stayed 12 in 1935, then went back down to 10 where it stayed until 1943. In 1944, it went back down to 5 and has stayed like that ever since.

Of course, the number of Best Director nominees will be staying at 5, so there will be guesses as to what “the real 5 are,” but for now, we are back to 10.

So what about the years between? If it had been 10 this whole time, what would the other nominees have been? I have taken my best stab at this for all the years in between and I tried to keep it as objective as possible. So, I set a few rules.

1 – My personal opinion of the film doesn’t matter. I have seen all but one of these films (please, if anyone has a copy of Bright Victory, let me know), but I don’t count my opinion. If I did, I Want to Live would never score so high, because I hate it.

2 – It had to have at least gotten 1 nomination from the Academy. While films did used to get Best Picture and no other nominations (something that hasn’t happened since 1943 – the last year with 10 nominees), I am going with the assumption that it won’t happen. I figure if the Academy likes it enough to nominate it, they like it enough to give it some other support.

3 – The other nomination has to be in a major category. For the purposes of this discussion I count the major nominations as Director, Screenplay, Acting, Editing or Cinematography. In the years in question the only film to get a Best Picture nomination without one of those categories is Beauty and the Beast and it was an exceptional case and it was before Animated films started getting Screenplay nominations.

4 – I gave it points on a scaled system. The most points were for the indicators that had the highest likelihood of a Best Picture nomination historically. I also only gave points for categories indicating the total strength of the film – so no points for Acting from other awards groups.

I gave the most points to the winner of Best Picture – Drama at the Globes because only two films (East of Eden and The Cardinal) have won and not been nominated. Following that, I went with the DGA, then the Best Director Oscar nominees (often considered as the “real nominees” by many people – and in the years of 10 nominees only 2 films get a Director nomination without a Picture nomination). Following that, the other things that earned films points were the NYFC and LAFC (weighted higher than other critics awards) for Picture, Director or Screenplay, the other 4 major critics groups (NSFC, BSFC, NBR, CFC) for Picture, Director or Screenplay; the Golden Globe nominations for Director, Screenplay or Picture – Comedy (Director and Screenplay weighted slightly higher and you got more points for a win), the WGA, and for more recent years, nominations for ACE, ASC or Picture, Director or Screenplay at the BFCA. I also gave points based on how many Academy Award nominations the film got and more points for any wins, then a scaled point system for Academy Awards points (which I mentioned in my original introduction to the history).

5 – There are certain things you might look for points from that I did not count. I did not count the Independent Spirits or the Satellites because the Oscars have not yet shown that they consider them serious precursors (the BFCA, though recent, have an excellent track record for predicting Best Picture).

I also did not count the BAFTA’s because for many years, the BAFTA’s were actually held after the Oscars and thus their nominations could not be said to have any effect on the Oscars.

6 – I then looked at the top 5 and those were the most likely other 5 nominees. The point you see listed after each title is a percent out of those top 5 (the 5 numbers always add up to 100). Because there are so many more precursors now then back in 1944, it was the only fair way to have a comparison – though at the end of this list I will list the top 20, both in raw points and in percentage of the total points for the 5.

7 – In the end, we can never be certain. The only film in Academy Award history to get nominated for Director, Screenplay and all 4 acting categories without a Best Picture nomination is My Man Godfrey and it did it in 1936, when there still were 10 nominees.

So, this is my best guess, based on what we know as to what the other 5 nominees might have been in each year from 1944 to 2008. Some of the years I will add some comments or mention a 6th or 7th film that was very close to the top 5 just to be fair.

1944 – Laura (29.12)

• None but the Lonely Heart (23.95)
• Lifeboat (21.55)
• Meet Me in St Louis (14.69)
• Cover Girl (10.69)
• note: Because there were so few critics groups (only NYFC and NBR) and because the DGA and WGA didn’t start giving awards until 1948 and because the Globes often only had winners (which were Oscar nominees) until the 50’s, these first few years are based almost entirely upon actual Academy success.

1945 – National Velvet (29.65)

• A Song to Remember (23.27)
• The Southerner (19.14)
• The Story of G.I. Joe (14.47)
• Leave Her to Heaven (13.48)
• note: Very close finishes for Objective Burma and A Tree Grows in Brooklyn

1946 – The Killers (23.19)

• The Jolson Story (21.46)
• Brief Encounter (21.30)
• Anna and the King of Siam (20.72)
• To Each His Own (13.32)

1947 – A Double Life (29.15)

• Boomerang (22.88)
• Body and Soul (19.83)
• Monsieur Verdoux (14.58)
• Green Dolphin Street (13.56)

1948 – The Search (31.77)

Montgomery Clift in The Search (1948)

• The Naked City (17.99)
• Red River (17.99)
• Joan of Arc (16.51)
• I Remember Mama (15.74)
• note: The DGA and the WGA began in 1948, so we finally get a wider range of perspective nominees.

1949 – Champion (28.50)

• Come to the Stable (22.46)
• The Fallen Idol (20.65)
• The Bicycle Thief (15.01)
• Paisan (13.37)
• note: Champion becomes the first film to come in 6th without an Oscar nomination for Best Director. Also, Bicycle Thief and Paisan become the first foreign films to be added. Both were Screenplay nominees and both had Critics awards.

1950 – The Asphalt Jungle (38.55)

• The Third Man (24.03)
• Broken Arrow (13.33)
• Annie Get Your Gun (13.03)
• Panic in the Streets (11.06)
• note: The added points from the Golden Globes and the WGA start to give a more populist bent (Annie) to the nominations – something the good folks at AwardsDaily (Ryan and Sasha) are predicting is what we will see from the future nominations.

1951 – Detective Story (27.11)

• The African Queen (22.40)
• Death of a Salesman (21.49)
• Bright Victory (16.39)
• The Well (12.61)
• note: Strangers on a Train is the first eligible film to get a DGA nomination and still not make it.
  

1952 – The Bad and the Beautiful (24.96)

• Five Fingers (23.99)
• The Lavender Hill Mob (18.93)
• Come Back Little Sheba (16.77)
• With a Song in My Heart (15.35)
• note: The Bad and the Beautiful won Best Screenplay, the precursor to Best Adapted Screenplay and until 1996 was the only film to win it without a Best Picture nomination.

1953 – Lili (38.05)

• Stalag 17 (29.11)
• The Band Wagon (11.49)
• The Moon is Blue (11.36)
• Above and Beyond (9.99)

1954 – Sabrina (31.88)

• Rear Window (23.46)
• The High and the Mighty (21.64)
• A Star is Born (12.00)
• The Barefoot Contessa (11.01)
• note: Billy Wilder on the list two years in a row is no surprise as until 1993 he was the only director get back to back Director but not Picture nominations (Altman did it in 92 and 93).

1955 – East of Eden (30.37)

• Bad Day at Black Rock (22.29)
• Love Me or Leave Me (20.32)
• The Blackboard Jungle (13.67)
• Summertime (13.35)
• note: As mentioned above, East of Eden was the first film to win Best Picture – Drama at the Globes and not get a nomination.

1956 – Baby Doll (23.59)

• Lust for Life (22.60)
• The Eddy Duchin Story (20.34)
• War and Peace (19.02)
• Somebody Up There Likes Me (14.45)

1957 – Funny Face (21.98)

• Pal Joey (21.06)
• Heaven Knows Mr. Allison (19.94)
• Designing Women (19.02)
• Wild is the Wind (18.00)
• note: The first time that Picture and Director matched made for no obvious choice. Also, Heaven is the third John Huston film in the 50’s to make it.

1958 – I Want to Live (46.50)

• Inn of the Sixth Happiness (14.53)
• The Old Man and the Sea (14.05)
• South Pacific (13.10)
• Teacher’s Pet (11.81)
• note: It’s the year of Touch of Evil, The Seventh Seal and Vertigo, but the numbers predict what the numbers predict. Current critical acclaim means nothing to what the Academy was likely to have nominated.

1959 – Some Like It Hot (36.92)

• Pillow Talk (21.93)
• Porgy and Bess (14.73)
• North by Northwest (14.08)
• On the Beach (12.33)

1960 – Spartacus (26.83)

• Psycho (21.65)
• Inherit the Wind (17.85)
• Never on Sunday (17.01)
• The Facts of Life (16.66)
• note: What we might see more of – a foreign film, a light popular comedy, an action film, a populist film and a critically acclaimed film from a genre (horror) that doesn’t get much respect. It’s just missing an animated film.

1961 – Breakfast at Tiffany’s (32.98)

• La Dolce Vita (18.43)
• Splendor in the Grass (17.75)
• The Parent Trap (15.92)
• The Flower Drum Song (14.93)

1962 – The Miracle Worker (27.66)

• Divorce – Italian Style (21.58)
• Freud (20.80)
• The Days of Wine and Roses (15.34)
• David and Lisa (14.61)
• note: The Manchurian Candidate was a close outside finisher. Of the 6 qualifying films to get DGA nominations and still not make it, 4 are from this year because the DGA nominated 8 films.

1963 – Hud (40.21)

Paul Newman as Hud (1963)

• The Cardinal (19.54)
• 8 1/2 (16.73)
• Love with the Proper Stranger (11.85)
• Captain Newman M.D. (11.67)
• note: I think this lineup is better than the actual nominees.

1964 – The Night of the Iguana (30.16)

• Father Goose (21.92)
• The Unsinkable Molly Brown (20.80)
• Hush Hush Sweet Charlotte (14.49)
• Seven Days in May (12.63)
• note: Another year with Picture – Director 5/5 match.

1965 – The Collector (26.52)

• Cat Ballou (24.46)
• A Patch of Blue (23.21)
• The Great Race (14.05)
• The Pawnbroker (11.77)
• note: The first year with a Best Director nominee who didn’t get in (Woman in the Dunes) because it got no other points.

1966 – The Professionals (26.47)

• A Man and a Woman (26.09)
• Blow-Up (18.40)
• Grand Prix (14.85)
• The Fortune Cookie (14.20)
• note: Georgy Girl becomes the 6th and final eligible film to get a DGA nomination but still not make it.
  

1967 – In Cold Blood (37.51)

• Cool Hand Luke (21.68)
• Camelot (16.30)
• The Dirty Dozen (12.32)
• Thoroughly Modern Millie (12.19)
• note: “Anything allowing a Dolittle to happen is so rooked up it doesn’t mean anything.” Truman Capote quoted on page 407 from Inside Oscar about Dr. Dolittle beating out In Cold Blood for a Best Picture nomination.

1968 – 2001: A Space Odyssey (23.58)

• The Odd Couple (19.40)
• The Producers (19.33)
• Faces (19.19)
• Rosemary’s Baby (18.51)
• note: Good god, what a great lineup. In my opinion, The Lion in Winter is the only one of the nominees as good as any of these 5.

1969 – They Shoot Horses, Don’t They (42.50)

• Bob & Carol & Ted & Alice (20.89)
• Easy Rider (14.13)
• The Secret of Santo Vittorio (11.35)
• The Prime of Miss Jean Brodie (11.14)
• note: Alice’s Restaurant got a Best Director nomination and nothing else.

1970 – Women in Love (27.42)

• I Never Sang for My Father (21.54)
• Ryan’s Daughter (19.94)
• Lovers and Other Strangers (17.87)
• Tora! Tora! Tora! (13.23)
• note: The Great White Hope was a close finisher to Tora. Fellini Satyricon becomes the third Best Director nominee to not make the list.

1971 – Sunday Bloody Sunday (29.36)

• Summer of 42 (26.04)
• Kotch (16.51)
• The Hospital (14.80)
• Klute (13.29)

1972 – The Poseidon Adventure (26.30)

• Sleuth (20.28)
• The Discreet Charm of the Bourgeoisie (19.02)
• Travels with My Aunt (17.61)
• Butterflies are Free (16.79)

1973 – Last Tango in Paris (23.53)

• Serpico (22.54)
• Paper Moon (22.24)
• Save the Tiger (15.94)
• Day of the Jackal (15.75)
• note: A year with a lot of strong contenders as not far behind were (in order): The Last Detail, The Way We Were, The Paper Chase and Cinderella Liberty.

1974 – Day for Night (30.54)

• A Women Under the Influence (20.84)
• Murder on the Orient Express (20.52)
• Earthquake (14.13)
• Harry and Tonto (13.97)
• note: Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore finished just a few points back and it might seem strange to see it beat out by Earthquake, but Earthquake had 5 Oscar nominations including Editing and Cinematography and won 2 Oscars and this was the year the Academy nominated The Towering Inferno.

1975 – The Sunshine Boys (25.51)

• Amarcord (25.25)
• Shampoo (23.54)
• The Man Who Would Be King (15.27)
• The Hindenburg (10.43)
• note: It’s odd to see The Hindenburg on here, but it’s a year where everything was split among many films and it had the weakest total of any film to make it since 1953 when there were far fewer precursors.

1976 – Seven Beauties (32.74)

• Voyage of the Damned (22.14)
• Marathon Man (17.61)
• Face to Face (13.76)
• The Seven Per-Cent Solution (13.76)

1977 – Close Encounters of the Third Kind (51.43)

• I Never Promised You a Rose Garden (14.56)
• Equus (12.67)
• Oh God! (11.06)
• Saturday Night Fever (10.29)
• note: Only Close Encounters had a strong pedigree – the rest were a fairly weak bunch for points.

1978 – Days of Heaven (29.93)

• Interiors (27.47)
• California Suite (15.71)
• Same Time Next Year (14.74)
• Superman (12.16)
• note: Superman beats out Dark Knight and becomes the first comic book Best Picture nominee. Also Interiors becomes the first Woody Allen film to add Best Picture, but no surprise since he’s been nominated for Director and Screenplay without Picture 4 times.

1979 – Manhattan (29.69)

Woody Allen's Manhattan (1979)

• The China Syndrome (29.26)
• Being There (18.17)
• La Cage Aux Folles (12.06)
• The Rose (10.83)

1980 – Melvin and Howard (33.60)

• The Stunt Man (29.49)
• Fame (17.68)
• Private Benjamin (12.07)
• The Great Santini (7.16)
• note: The first year since 1944 to only have 5 films reach 100 points.

1981 – Ragtime (25.07)

• Prince of the City (20.21)
• Arthur (19.82)
• The French Lieutenant’s Woman (19.03)
• Absence of Malice (15.87)
• note: Because of the 5/5 Picture/Director match, we have 5 nominees who all got Screenplay nominations for the third time (also happened in 1949 and 1968).

1982 – An Officer and a Gentleman (26.97)

• Das Boot (26.52)
• Victor/Victoria (22.52)
• Sophie’s Choice (18.63)
• Diner (12.32)
• note: Again, all 5 got Screenplay nominations.

1983 – Fanny and Alexander (34.82)

• Silkwood (26.28)
• Reuben, Reuben (14.91)
• Educating Rita (12.23)
• Yentl (11.77)
• note: Wargames finishes just one point behind Yentl.

1984 – Broadway Danny Rose (24.50)

• Splash (21.44)
• Greystoke (18.56)
• Romancing the Stone (18.47)
• The Cotton Club (17.03)

1985 – Ran (24.08)

• The Purple Rose of Cairo (21.18)
• Brazil (19.99)
• Cocoon (18.17)
• Back to the Future (16.58)
• note: Four movies with a Sci-Fi or Fantasy bent. Would the Academy heads just explode?

1986 – Blue Velvet (37.39)

• Stand by Me (22.41)
• The Color of Money (13.52)
• Crimes of the Heart (13.46)
• Mona Lisa (13.22)
• note: Close finishes just behind for My Beautiful Laundrette and Aliens.

1987 – Empire of the Sun (35.84)

• My Life as a Dog (22.32)
• Full Metal Jacket (15.59)
• The Untouchables (13.88)
• Cry Freedom (12.37)
• note: The Dead finishes 2 points behind keeping John Huston from getting a fifth extra nomination.

1988 – A Fish Called Wanda (21.86)

• Who Framed Roger Rabbit (21.38)
• Bull Durham (20.63)
• The Unbearable Lightness of Being (19.69)
• Gorillas in the Mist (16.44)
• note: Scorsese still doesn’t get a Best Picture nomination to go with his Director nomination for The Last Temptation of Christ. Little Dorrit becomes the only winner of the LAFC to still not make it.

1989 – Do the Right Thing (25.73)

• Glory (23.44)
• Crimes and Misdemeanors (19.45)
• When Harry Met Sally (18.20)
• Henry V (13.18)
• note: I would say this is the best group of 5 here. It is the only one where I give **** to all 5 films.

1990 – Reversal of Fortune (32.72)

• Avalon (25.83)
• The Grifters (18.12)
• Dick Tracy (13.22)
• Green Card (10.11)

1991 – Thelma and Louise (37.43)

• The Fisher King (20.38)
• Boyz N the Hood (16.47)
• Terminator 2: Judgment Day (13.89)
• Fried Green Tomatoes (11.83)

1992 – The Player (48.44)

• A River Runs Through It (15.20)
• Enchanted April (14.56)
• Lorenzo’s Oil (10.90)
• Passion Fish (10.90)

1993 – The Age of Innocence (32.32)

• Philadelphia (21.59)
• In the Line of Fire (18.15)
• Short Cuts (15.11)
• Sleepless in Seattle (12.82)
• note: It hurt to write that last one but it’s what the numbers support.

1994 – Bullets over Broadway (30.12)

• The Madness of King George (19.38)
• Red (18.16)
• Legends of the Fall (17.51)
• Ed Wood (14.84)

1995 – Leaving Las Vegas (47.92)

• Dead Man Walking (16.89)
• The Usual Suspects (13.15)
• Nixon (12.11)
• Mighty Aphrodite (9.93)
• note: Leaving Las Vegas becomes the first film to break 1000 points.

1996 – The People vs. Larry Flynt (26.66)

• Evita (23.00)
• Breaking the Waves (15.16)
• Hamlet (15.16)
• Lone Star (15.05)
• note: Sling Blade falls just behind leaving it the only winner of Best Adapted Screenplay not to get nominated for Best Picture.

1997 – Amistad (27.53)

• Wag the Dog (20.69)
• Boogie Nights (19.83)
• The Wings of the Dove (19.14)
• Donnie Brasco (12.82)
• note: The Sweet Hereafter finishes just behind, becoming to only Director and Screenplay nominee to still not get nominated. Spielberg gets his third additional nomination.

1998 – Out of Sight (26.33)

• The Truman Show (25.34)
• Gods and Monsters (21.44)
• A Simple Plan (14.94)
• Bulworth (11.94)

1999 – Being John Malkovich (39.05)

• The Talented Mr. Ripley (20.99)
• Topsy-Turvy (19.25)
• Election (10.40)
• Magnolia (10.32)

2000 – Almost Famous (36.77)

• You Can Count on Me (18.42)
• Wonder Boys (17.80)
• Billy Elliot (17.50)
• Quills (9.52)

2001 – Mulholland Drive (34.29)

Naomi Watts and Laura Herring in Mullholland Drive (2001)

• Memento (23.49)
• Black Hawk Down (17.51)
• The Man Who Wasn’t There (13.17)
• Shrek (11.54)

2002 – Adaptation (31.55)

• Far From Heaven (24.53)
• About Schmidt (21.35)
• Talk to Her (11.40)
• Road to Perdition (11.16)

2003 – Cold Mountain (27.76)

• American Splendor (23.45)
• In America (22.93)
• City of God (13.26)
• The Last Samurai (12.61)

2004 – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (30.41)

• Hotel Rwanda (20.69)
• Kinsey (17.02)
• Collateral (16.17)
• The Incredibles (15.72)
• note: Incredibles becomes the second Animated and first Pixar film to get nominated. Vera Drake becomes the second Director / Screenplay match to still not get nominated.

2005 – The Constant Gardener (24.20)

• The Squid and the Whale (22.93)
• Walk the Line (20.58)
• A History of Violence (18.05)
• Cinderella Man (14.24)
• note: A 5/5/5 match for Picture, Director and DGA.

2006 – Dreamgirls (28.67)

• Little Children (21.83)
• United 93 (19.10)
• Pan’s Labyrinth (15.51)
• Notes on a Scandal (14.89)

2007 – The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (35.02)

• Sweeney Todd (18.80)
• Into the Wild (18.51)
• Ratatouille (14.82)
• The Savages (12.85)
• note: Given the expected nominations over the last several years for Dark Knight, Into the Wild, Dreamgirls and Walk the Line, it is Diving Bell that has a higher point total than any of them.

2008 – Wall-E (29.20)

• The Dark Knight (26.29)
• Doubt (18.96)
• Happy-Go-Lucky (16.73)
• The Wrestler (8.83)
• note: Vicky Cristina Barcelona and Revolutionary Road finish just outside the running, which keeps Woody Allen from his 7th additional nomination.

So, there we have it. The high potential for what the other 5 nominees would have been in each year. This is not the full point total for those years – but when I do my individual in depth look at each year in film starting in October (after the Top 100 Directors concludes), I will give full point totals for each year, including the BAFTAs and all awards, not just the major ones.

Now, for a couple of round-up lists.

Spielberg's Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977)

Top 20 Percentage Totals (the number you see listed after each film):

1. Close Encounters of the Third Kind – 1977 (51.43)
2. The Player – 1992 (48.44)
3. Leaving Las Vegas – 1995 (47.92)
4. I Want to Live! – 1958 (46.50)
5. They Shoot Horses, Don’t They – 1969 (42.50)
6. Hud – 1963 (40.21)
7. Being John Malkovich – 1999 (39.05)
8. The Asphalt Jungle – 1950 (38.55)
9. Lili – 1953 (38.05)
10. In Cold Blood – 1967 (37.51)
11. Thelma and Louise – 1991 (37.43)
12. Blue Velvet – 1986 (37.39)
13. Some Like It Hot – 1959 (36.92)
14. Almost Famous – 2000 (36.77)
15. Empire of the Sun – 1987 (35.84)
16. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – 2007 (35.02)
17. Fanny and Alexander – 1983 (34.82)
18. Mulholland Drive – 2001 (34.29)
19. Melvin and Howard – 1980 (33.60)
20. Breakfast at Tiffany’s – 1961 (32.98)

Top 20 Point Totals (there are more points available in more recent years)

1. Almost Famous – 2000 (1078)
2. Leaving Las Vegas – 1995 (1013)
3. Being John Malkovich – 1999 (988)
4. Mulholland Drive – 2001 (924)
5. Adaptation – 2002 (913)
6. Hud – 1963 (889)
7. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly – 2007 (872)
8. They Shoot Horses, Don’t They – 1969 (824)
9. The Player – 1992 (922)
10. Close Encounters of the Third Kind – 1977 (735)
11. Wall-E – 2008 (721)
12. Far From Heaven – 2002 (710)
13. Thelma and Louise – 1991 (709)
14. Fanny and Alexander – 1983 (689)
15. I Want to Live! – 1958 (685)
16. Melvin and Howard – 1980 (671)
17. Out of Sight – 1998 (668)
18. The Dark Knight – 2008 (649)
19. The Asphalt Jungle – 1950 (648)
20. The Truman Show – 1998 / Cold Mountain – 2003 (643)

Worst Five Point Totals to Still Make Its Year List

1. Cover Girl – 1944 (120)
2. The Great Santini – 1980 (143)
3. Saturday Night Fever – 1977 (147)
4. Green Dolphin Street – 1947 (147)
5. Leave Her to Heaven – 1945 (150)

Top 5 Point Totals to Still NOT Make It Year List

1. My Big Fat Greek Wedding – 2002 (298)
2. Memoirs of a Geisha – 2005 (287)
3. Running on Empty – 1988 (284)
4. Syriana – 2005 (270)
5. Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore – 1974 (258)

One final note to all the doubters about this new system. If my ideas are right, and the numbers are fairly solid – this proves that we should have had 10 nominees all along. Because look at the list of directors who never had (or have not yet had) a Best Picture nomination in real life, but would have according to this list:

• Akira Kurosawa
  

  Akira Kurosawa

• Francois Truffaut
• Frederico Fellini
• Luis Bunuel
• Krzystof Kieslowski
• Tim Burton
• John Sayles
• Kenneth Branagh
• Terry Gilliam
• Pedro Almodovar
• Christopher Nolan
• Pixar