PLEASE READ THE NOTE AT THE BOTTOM ABOUT FUTURE POSTS AND COMMENTING AFTER THE OSCARS

This is starting earlier than ever and there are several people to blame for that.

  • Me.
  • Disney
  • F.T.
  • MUAHSG
  • Comic Book Resources

I’ll get to all of those in a minute.  But I’ll reiterate what I have done the past few years.  This post will go up now and whenever I update it, I will post it “sticky” so that it goes to the top of the blog (though that’s not a repost and I don’t know how that works with notifications).  Anything major that I want to make certain people read (usually having to do with comments or an announcement) I’ll stick in bold at the top.  And a reminder that all comments have to be approved so just sit tight after you post and I’ll get to them (it takes longer on workdays).

Now, to the list.

Me:  Even though I worked on it for a year, the 1994 posts sucked a lot of energy.  I need time to get the next number of posts done (AS: 1995, Editing, DreamWorks, Comedy) and this gives me some time.  It’ll give me at least enough time to finish those first two and by then the NYFC (don’t know the date but last year was 30 November) and NBR (3 Dec) will chime in and we really will have started.

Disney:  Also sucking my time thanks to The Mandalorian.  As I wrote to a friend of mine, after the “where the fuck is this going” narrative of Watchmen, it’s a relief to have straight forward storytelling on The Mandalorian.  Plus, there are several Disney films I still haven’t seen (working my way towards completion for its eventual ACOF post) and Disney+ has several of them already available.  Plus, blaming Disney gave me an excuse to post the hilarious tweet up above.

F.T.:  This is blame with a smile which is also why I didn’t list him first.  F.T. is a big proponent of following the now renamed International Film category and starts commenting on them as soon as the list lands in October but having this post gives him a post that’s more appropriate to comment on.  I’ll comment more on the category below.

MUAHSG:  This is the Makeup Guild (and Hair Stylists).  They have always been a pain.  They began in 1999 and their awards ran to 2003 and in the days before my Century of Film insanity drove me to watch almost everything, my awards OCD and this guild combined to punish me by making me watch such films as Bedazzled, Sorority Boys, The Master of Disguise and The Cat in the Hat.  Then they went away for a decade with no real explanation, returning in 2013 to annoy me with such films as Jobs, Winter’s Tale and Zoolander 2.  This year they decided to chime in really early (almost a week ago already) and I wonder if they even saw all the films since Bombshell was the only December release to earn nominations.  Not a great start for me since I’ve only seen 6 of the 15 films to earn nominations (and only two of the eight to earn multiple noms) but it might be a year like that for quite a while.  They’re almost worthless when it comes to Oscar predictions so I won’t bother much with them.

Comic Book Resources:  They are a frustrating website because they have some really good stuff but a lot of their articles are crap, they often give away at least spoiling concepts in their headlines at a time when you can’t even have seen things and they are just bad at reporting.  I note that last one because, even in the world of the Illiterate Moronic Scumbag in Chief, words matter.  They had one article about a month ago about Robert Downey Jr wouldn’t be “submitted” for Oscar consideration by Disney for Endgame and then another last week about he would be.  It’s “promoted” you morons.  If you’re going to try reporting, then do it right.  No performances are submitted for Oscar consideration.  Voters are sent reminder lists.  No studio submits anyone and (because it’s related and because my mom can’t get this through her head even though I explain it every year), there is nothing that decides what category someone belongs in except the voters themselves.  Columbia can push Brad Pitt in supporting for Once Upon a Time (which I disagree with – I thought of him as supporting until the ranch scene and that was so much a major part, I felt he was a co-lead) but only the voters actually decide where to place him when they vote (and I hope they do – it’s as good a performance as Pitt has ever given).  If you want to write about such things, then learn the actual terminology and rules.

Now that the blame has been laid, I’ll make a couple of more comments.  Then this post will probably sit quietly (except for comments) until the first critics groups chime in, at which point I will hopefully have done a couple more posts and this will return to the top with a sticky.

One thing to bear in mind – I haven’t seen most of the majors contenders (other than Once Upon a Time which is far and away my #1 at this point) and there is no guarantee I will have seen them before the actual Oscars.  The only two films I am guaranteed to see the rest of the year are the two which I already have tickets for (Knives Out, Rise of Skywalker).  Thanks to the early Christmas present from my mother of Fandango gift cards, we’ll almost certainly hit several Thomas friendly films (Frozen II, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Cats, Jumanji) and I certainly have a priority list for films already out (Irishman, Jojo Rabbit, Parasite, Pain and Glory) and films coming out later (Little Women, 1917, Aeronauts) but only those two guarantees.

International Film:  The Academy did themselves no favors by renaming the category because they didn’t change the rules.  So, on the one hand, I feel bad for Nigeria and Austria for getting rejected for having mostly English language films because they both deal with Nigerians, for whom English is their primary language.  On the other hand, there are rules for the category and if you can’t be bothered to read the rules before submitting your film, you deserved to get rejected.  This category, of course, is mostly considered a foregone conclusion.  Parasite is the most obvious winner since… well, since Roma last year.  Although Pain and Glory might give it a good run.  Let’s remember that Amelie and Pan’s Labyrinth both lost in this category.

Animated Film:  The submission list has been released but that doesn’t help because most of them are still unseen.  GKids is great at getting nominations (11) but not at releasing their films where people can see them.  Of the 41 films listed for the studio on BoxOfficeMojo (which you can no longer look up because they’re assholes who put it behind a paywall), seven of them list a release date after the year of their Oscar eligibility date including three nominated films (A Cat in Paris, Chico and Rita, My Life as a Zucchini).  GKids has 10 of the 32 submitted films.  Four of those haven’t yet been released and of the other six only one (Promare) earned over $200,000 so nobody saw the others, at least in the theaters (and one is only 44 minutes – This Magnificent Cake – and so the Oscars might count it (their cut-off is 40 minutes) but I don’t).  Overall, it’s hard to get a grasp on the category this year.  The only sequel to ever win the category was Toy Story 3 (and the first two films predated the category) and in spite of overwhelming critical and commercial support, the Academy didn’t even nominate Finding Dory, so who knows if they really will give the Oscar to a sequel to a former winner (Toy Story 4, Frozen II).  Missing Link was a box office bomb but it’s a Laika film and all their other films have been nominated (and it was quite enjoyable).  Will How To Train Your Dragon win when the far superior first two films didn’t even though the second film had the advantage of a Consensus winner (LEGO Movie) not being nominated?  And if the brilliant first film wasn’t nominated will LEGO Movie 2, a decent but far inferior sequel get one?  Unlikely.  It’s just a weird year for Animated Film.  And it’s odd that two films I was bludgeoned with trailers for during the year in theaters weren’t even submitted (Wonder Park, Ugly Dolls) not that I’m complaining.

2 December:  Won’t actually make this sticky until Wednesday, after the NBR and NYFC announcements but as Sam notes in the comments, the Annies have announced their noms (will comment on that then as well).  After that, expect maybe an update on Sunday after the BFCA put out their noms (plus the LAFC winners) but before the Globe noms on Monday.  Then, probably updates on Monday post-Globe announcement and then again on Wednesday, by which time four Tech guilds (ACE, CAS, ADG, CDG) as well as the important SAG noms.  If you need a calendar to keep track of what’s coming up, I recommend this.

4 December:  Well the first two critics groups are in and what have we learned?  Well, not a lot, actually, so we’ll cover this really quick.

Acting:  All four awards went to different people from both the NBR and NYFC.  The last time that happened was 2015 when one of the NBR winners won the Oscar (Brie Larsen) and the other three earned noms and one of the NYFC winners won the Oscar (Mark Rylance) and two of the other three didn’t even earn Oscar noms (Michael Keaton, Kristen Stewart).

Animated Film:  As mentioned above, it will be a strange year and that continues.  The Annie nominees have been announced and they didn’t clear up much because so many GKids films (four of them to be precise) were nominated in the Independent category.  The NBR went with How to Train Your Dragon and if Pixar can’t win for overwhelming critical and commercial appeal for their sequels I can’t see how a subpar sequel with lesser critical and commercial appeal wins when the original two didn’t.  The NYFC went with a Netflix distributed French film (I Lost My Body) and it makes you wonder if Netflix or GKids will take home the Oscar this year.

Foreign Film:  Parasite won Foreign Film from both groups, which Cold War did last year, though, first Cold War didn’t win the Oscar and second, that’s because Roma, which won Best Picture instead of Foreign Film at the NYFC did.  Before that, the last Foreign Film to win both the NBR and NYFC was Amour which did manage a Best Picture nomination.

Director:  Quentin, who is widely expected to compete with Marty for the Oscar, won the NBR.  Will Marty having an Oscar make a difference?  It didn’t make a difference in 2004 when the Academy gave Clint a second Oscar instead of awarding it to Marty.  But the NYFC went with the Safdie Brothers.  Will that propel them into the race?  Uncut Gems was expected to be an Oscar hopeful, mostly for Actor but isn’t in the Top 30 for Picture or Director at GoldDerby at the moment and the Gurus of Gold barely acknowledged it for Picture, Director or Screenplay (which it won at the NBR).  Not necessarily.  The Florida Project won Director at the NYFC two years ago and didn’t earn anything at the Oscar aside from a Supporting Actor nom.

One last little note on Director.  Regular readers know I only pay attention to the Indie Spirits and the Satellites to add more things in for my Director Consensus Award because that award factors into the Top 100 score.  This is the first year since 2007 in which there is no overlap between those two groups which is distinctly odd.

Picture:  Fans of The Irishman can get excited (no film that has won both the NBR and the NYFC has ever failed to earn an Oscar nom) but not overwhelmingly so (the last two films to do so and three of the last four failed to win the Oscar).

The next update will probably be late Sunday so I can comment on the LAFC and BFCA noms before the Globe noms on Monday morning.  You don’t have to worry about posting info about the noms – I’ll have seen them.  But I probably won’t type anything until the break between the late game and the night game and possibly not until after the night game (unless the Seahawks start pounding the Rams in which case I’ll ditch the game and do the update).

7 December:  Nothing new but I had forgotten that I had started the post earlier than I thought and found this note from September that I wanted to include:  But I really felt the awards season kicked in this year, not with that (GoldDerby putting up odds, the TIFF ending), but with this thoughtful, insightful article by Mark Harris that tells us precisely how little we know about what will happen come February.  Let’s not forget that Harris wrote Pictures at a Revolution, almost certainly the best book ever written about a specific Oscar race.

8 December:  The LAFC are still voting but you know what, who cares?  Well, I mean, I care and so do lots of others.  But Oscar voters don’t.  Since 1993, the LAFC have has as many of their Best Picture winning films fail to earn an Oscar nomination (Leaving Las Vegas, American Splendor, Wall-E) as win Best Picture at the Oscars (Hurt Locker, Spotlight, Moonlight).  They often give acting awards to Foreign language performances (including two of the three that have already been awarded today) but Academy voters might nominate them but don’t give them the Oscar.  Since the last LAFC winner to go on to win the Oscar in Actor (Colin Firth) their winners have included non-nominees Michael Fassbender (2011 – four films), Tom Hardy (Locke), Adam Driver (Paterson) and Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) and their Director list this decade includes four who didn’t earn an Oscar nomination and only two who won (including 2017 when they gave the prize to both).  It doesn’t even help Antonio Banderas that he has won both the NYFC and LAFC this year – Ethan Hawke won them both last year.  And just to prove my point, right as I am about to post this, they have given Best Actress to Mary Kay Place in Diane, a performance listed in last (28th) place at GoldDerby.

So, on to the BFCA.  I’ll be looking at two things.  How have films that have done well at the BFCA done for the Oscars and how have Oscar nominees done at the BFCA.  Five films were nominated today for Picture, Director and Screenplay: The Irishman (dominating with a record tying 13 noms), Once Upon a Time in Hollywood (10 noms and competing against Irishman in everything except the separate Screenplay categories), Little Women, Marriage Story (just the sixth film to earn the big 5 noms though the fourth in a row after La La Land, The Post and A Star is Born) and Parasite.  Looking back to 2011 (when the current Oscar set-up of the floating number of picture winners began), 41 films did that before today and all but three of them earned Picture noms at the Oscars (Gone Girl, Unbroken, First Man).  Gone Girl is an outlier but Unbroken rode high early estimations before it was seen and First Man was considered a big box-office under-performer.  That’s not the case here, though, with one film not yet open, two from Netflix which doesn’t even have box office results and one a foreign film that makes it an odd case.  Still, those five are all in good shape.

Then there are Uncut Gems and 1917.  They have Picture and Director but not Screenplay.  Still, 9 of the 10 films to do that at the BFCA earned Oscar noms (Carol was the outlier).  So, while 1917 is probably in good shape, Uncut Gems could really use the guild support that Carol didn’t have.

Then there are the other three Picture nominees.  Ford v Ferrari has Picture but not Director or Screenplay.  Of the nine films to do that, four got in (Tree of Life, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Dallas Buyers Club, Darkest Hour) and while Ford is a much bigger box office hit that might not help it.

There are also Joker and Jojo Rabbit.  Both have Screenplay and an acting nom from the BFCA.  Joker, like Black Panther last year, is a big box office hit (though not as big) and has been a big topic of conversation.  Jojo Rabbit might be in a bit of trouble though because of the 21 films nominated for Picture and Screenplay at the BFCA, they have the most that didn’t make it through with just 12 earning noms and four of those won a writing award at the BFCA.

What about films that were hoping to get in?  Films like The Farewell (Screenplay, Actress noms), Bombshell (Actress, Supporting Actress), A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor), The Two Popes (Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actor) or Richard Jewell (no noms)?

Since 2011 six films have earned Oscar noms for Picture without a BFCA nom or roughly two every three years so we could very well go without one this year (I think there’s a very good chance of that).  Two of them were late openers that did huge box office (American Sniper which had no BFCA noms – probably not screened in time like Richard Jewell and Rise of Skywalker) but that’s unlikely for those films.  Two were non-American films that did well with guilds and other groups (Amour – very well with critics; Philomena – boosted by strong BAFTA support) which I don’t really see happening here.  That leaves two outliers – Phantom Thread (big critics film) and Bohemian Rhapsody (big box office).

The Globes won’t necessarily sort this out tomorrow (Amour was only eligible for Foreign which it won at the Globes and Philomena and Phantom Thread weren’t Picture nominees those are crossed out because I was reading the PGA line – American Sniper, Hidden Figures and Phantom Thread weren’t Globe nominees) but a Comedy nom for The Farewell I would say is necessary for it to have any chance.  If any of the un-nominated films is a surprise Drama nominee that could change.  If alongside expected nominees Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917 and Little Women we get something like Bombshell, The Two Popes or Beautiful Day instead of Joker, Ford or even Uncut Gems, that could make the mix a bit different.

I’ll chime in more on acting tomorrow after the Globe noms.

9 December:  Well, the Globe, as always, do a bit of their own thing.  In spite of Netflix domination there is no nomination for Robert De Niro.  Marriage Story leads with 6 nominations but not Director.  For the record, the last film to even tie for the most noms at the Globes without a Director nom was Doubt in 2008 and the last film to flat out-lead without it was An Officer and a Gentleman in 1982.  Marriage ties Officer, Foul Play and Voyage of the Damned for most Globe noms without a Director nom.  Like six years ago, the Picture and Actor lineups match in Comedy but only one of those films is nominated for Actress.  Unlike the Academy, they considered The Lion King to be animated.

Director:  Marty, Tarantino, Bong Joon-ho and Sam Mendes have now earned Globe and BFCA noms.  How does that position them?  Well, since the BFCA expanded to a full slate in 2009 there have been nine times in ten years at least four directors did that (I say at least because twice five directors did it).  But in eight of those nine years, at least one of those directors failed to earn an Oscar nom, the exception being 2016.  What’s more, of the 13 directors who earned both nominations and failed to earn an Oscar nom, a whopping six of them earned both DGA and BAFTA nominations so we still really won’t know until Oscar morning which way the Academy have gone.  Reason and logic dictates those four go at the top of the prediction list.  But Affleck won the DGA and BAFTA (and Globe and BFCA) without an Oscar nom and Kathryn Bigelow and Todd Haynes (thanks to critics wins – Haynes is the only director in this period to also earn a BAFTA but not a DGA nom) actually won the Consensus.

Animated Film:  The BFCA and Globes agreed 4/5.  Odd that the Globe would go for The Lion King (non-Annie nominated, non-Oscar eligible) rather than the NYFC / LAFC winner I Lost My Body.  After all, it’s clear that the Globe voters watch Netflix – it lead in television noms and had more than twice as many film noms as any other studio.  No Oscar winner to-date has failed to earn a Globe nom and there hasn’t even been an Oscar nominee without a Globe nom since 201 but I think that’s likely to change.  I’ll also point there is actually a historical precedent for this.  In 2007, Persepolis, with the same resume to this point (Annie, BFCA nom, NYFC, LAFC wins) also failed to earn a Globe nom though back then the Globes only nominated three films.  And I Lost My Body is definitely eligible in spite of being a Foreign film – The Wind Rises, My Life as Zucchini and Mirai all earned Globe noms.

Foreign Film:  Parasite and Pain and Glory are all but assured Oscar noms but the but is very important.  Let’s remember one of the highest profile films not to earn an Oscar nom in spite of being a critics winner, a BFCA and Globe nominee and even earning plaudits for acting (the same resume as Pain and Glory) was Volver from the same director.  The category’s voting rules (though not its eligibility rules) have been retooled this year so we’ll see.  Lots of Oscar eligible films have earned Globe and BFCA noms (and even critics wins) and still failed to earn an Oscar nom.  I will point out that Globe and BFCA nom Portrait of a Lady on Fire wasn’t submitted by France because Globe and BFCA nom Les Miserables was.

Supporting Actress:  We’ll know more on Wednesday with the SAG nominees but let’s look at what we do know.  Jennifer Lopez and Laura Dern are in good shape – only four performances have earned BFCA and Globe noms and at least one critics win without earning an Oscar nom and only one since 2011.  If they get SAG noms it’s almost a certainty (only Cameron Diaz in 2001 added SAG without an Oscar nom).  Margot Robbie is in decent shape as 42 of the 47 performances with both Globe and BFCA noms but without NBR, LAFC or NYFC wins earned Oscar noms.  But, three of the five that missed were in the last four years and two of those (Helen Mirren, Hong Chau) had SAG noms as well and the other (Claire Foy) had a BAFTA nom.  Kathy Bates is in a unique position – no performance in this category has ever had a critics win and Globe nom but no BFCA nom.  Still, half of the Globe nom but no BFCA nom have made it.  Right now, good bets would be noms for Lopez, Dern, Robbie, Bates and then decide which film will have the stronger Academy reaction – Jojo Rabbit (Scarlett) or Little Women (Florence Pugh).  Whichever earns a SAG nom is the better bet as well.

Supporting Actor:  Even though Parasite is a good bet for a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars don’t count on a nom for Sang Kang Ho, the LAFC winner.  The LAFC are known for rewarding foreign performances and even though Roma earned multiple acting noms, this field is just too strong.  Poor Willem Dafoe is probably on the outside if the Oscars have a chance to nominate the BFCA-Globe double nominees: Pitt, Pacino, Pesci, Hanks and Hopkins.  While the Academy has in the past gone for another win for someone who has one even over a long deserving person (think last year in this category, 2004 in Actress), my guess is the Academy looks at the fact that Pacino, Pesci, Hanks and Hopkins all have Oscars and Pitt wins the Oscar.  And 62 of the 71 performances with both BFCA and Globe noms earned Oscar noms (though 3 of the other nine had SAG noms) so it’s a good chance.  If those are the five SAG nominees, pretty much count on them being the Oscar nominees.

Actor:  I’ll cover these with decreasing odds.  I feel a little bad for little Roman Griffin Davis who is in a field with Craig, Murphy, DiCaprio and Egerton.  That’s some major cool factor in that company.  But it won’t happen again at the Oscars (nor is it likely for Craig or Egerton, no matter how great Egerton was).  Since 2005, when the BFCA began with their full slates of acting, 51 performances have earned a Globe Comedy nom but not a BFCA nom.  Of those, only Leo for Wolf of Wall Street managed an Oscar nom.  Now on to the the Globe nominees: Bale and a surprising Jonathan Pryce (he had decent odds but my guess is few had him in and De Niro out).  Since 2005 there have been 13 performances with Globe – Drama noms but not BFCA.  Of those, only three earned Oscar noms but they’re all in the last several years (Steve Carrell, Viggo, Denzel in 2017).  Even though none of those three had Picture noms, I would guess a Picture nom would help Bale or Pryce.  Now Sandler and De Niro.  Sandler has a critics win but its the NBR which might not help.  Setting the critics win aside, 15 performances have earned BFCA noms but not a Globe nom and only five of them earned Oscar noms, none since 2010.  However, what helps De Niro is that only three of those performances came from Picture nominees and two of those (Jeremy Renner, Jeff Bridges) did go on to Oscar noms.  So De Niro is probably still a good bet for the fifth Oscar nom especially if he earns a SAG nom.  The problem is that there are still five performances to consider.  If De Niro is in it’s probably Eddie Murphy who’s out.  Leo and Eddie both have BFCA and Globe – Comedy noms and the odds for that are 17/24.  But Leo is helped by the film’s presence – the odds are 14/16 from Picture noms (Paul Giammati in 2004 and Ralph Fiennes in 2014 are the ones who didn’t make it) as opposed to 3/8 from non-Picture nominees.  Then there are the last three, the three in the best shape.  57 of the 70 performances to earn BFCA and Globe – Drama noms made the final line-up and none of those 13 had multiple critics wins like Antonio Banderas.  With this the year of Adam Driver, he’s a very good bet.  And Joaquin Phoenix seems to be the one thing about Joker that everyone agrees on.  It’s never 100% (just ask Tom Hanks in 2013 or Jake Gyllenhaal in 2014) but if the SAG nominees are Banderas, Driver, Phoenix, Leo and De Niro, that’s a good bet for the Oscars.

Actress:  There was worry that it would be Oscars Oh So White again but that might no longer be the case at least in this category.  Setting aside the four performances that only have a Globe – Comedy nom (only Amy Adams in 2013 – from a Picture nominee and Meryl Streep in 2016 – because she’s Meryl managed Oscar noms with a Globe – Comedy nom but not a BFCA nom), we can move past Mary Kay Place as well (aside from my noting yesterday that the LAFC are weird, only three LAFC winners without Globe noms earned Oscar noms and all of them earned BFCA noms) and move on to Awkwafina.  She might be hurt most by the depth of the field and a likely lack of a Picture nom for the film.  It’s true that most of the BFCA – Globe – Comedy nominees earned Oscar noms but it’s worth remembering there are now 7 BFCA noms in the category and five of them were nominated for Actress – Drama at the Globes.  What’s more, Lupita Nyong’o has a very good chance of earning a nom in spite of the Globe snub.  The only precedent for her is Marion Cotillard in 2014 (NYFC win, BFCA nom, no Globe nom) and she earned a nom.  But it’s interesting to think who might be out.  Right now Renee Zellweger is considered the front-runner (by far) and she is currently first in the Consensus as the only one of the three critics winners so far to earn both Globe and BFCA noms.  But think about this – to date there have been 50 performances that have earned BFCA and Globe – Drama noms but failed to win either the LAFC or NYFC.  Of those, 39 earned Oscar noms, the most recent failure being Jessica Chastain in 2017 in a very tough field.  But, the next most recent was Amy Adams in 2016 who, you guessed it, won the NBR, just like Zellweger.  What’s more, of those 11 who earned both noms and failed to earn an Oscar nom, three of them won the NBR and they were all in the last decade (aside from Adams, there was Tilda Swinton in 2011 and Emma Thompson in 2013).  And SAG won’t necessarily help – it didn’t help any of those three.  So you’re probably good in your pool going with Renee, Scarlett, Saorise Ronan, Charlize Theron and Cynthia Erivo (making sure it’s not all white) but there are often surprises.

Picture:  Since 2011 when the current Best Picture set-up began only two films have earned BFCA and Picture – Drama noms and failed to earn an Oscar nom: Carol and If Beale Street Could Talk.  So that’s really good news for The Irishman, Marriage Story, 1917 and Joker.  Three more films earned BFCA and Picture – Comedy noms and failed so it’s a little less strong for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Jojo Rabbit but they’re still good bets.  That gives us a field of seven when you include Parasite (Roma is its only real precedent).  What about an eighth or ninth film (in no year since the current set-up has the Academy gone the full 10)?  On average one film gets in a year with a BFCA nom but not a Globe nom.  That means you should only bet on one of Little Women, Ford v Ferrari and Uncut Gems, though in 2011, 2015 and 2016 two films did it (but last year none did).  Only Philomena and Bohemian Rhapsody (which was a big hit and won the Globe) managed to turn Globe – Drama noms without a BFCA nom into an Oscar nom which is bad for The Two Popes and no film has managed to turn a Globe – Comedy nom without a BFCA nom into an Oscar nom which is very bad for Knives Out and Dolemite is My Name.  It’s also not unheard of to get an Oscar nom without either so Bombshell, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Richard Jewell fans can still hope but only three films have managed it and two of those (American Sniper, Hidden Figures) were very late releases with huge box office.  The other one was Phantom Thread and none of these films seem to have that level of support.  So if I were a betting man (which I am not), I would bet on nominations for Irishman, Hollywood, Marriage Story, 1917, Joker, Parasite, Jojo Rabbit and Little Women with maybe a chance for Ford if they go for nine.

Art Direction:  Just a brief add-on now that the ADG has chimed in.  I’m just amused that in the Fantasy category of the six nominees, five of them are Disney films (Aladdin, Dumbo, Avengers, Maleficent, Skywalker) and the sixth is a 20th Century-Fox film (Ad Astra) that was released after Disney bought Fox.  But one other thing of note about it: Little Women wasn’t ADG nominated (for, for that matter, was Downton Abbey).  The last film to earn an Oscar nom with a BFCA nom but not an ADG nom was in 2011 (War Horse).  If Little Women can’t get a Production Design nomination at the Oscars it hurts it for overall votes and might mean it’s not going to get that Picture slot.  On the other hand, Midnight in Paris earned an Oscar nom without the ADG or the BFCA so who knows.

11 December:  So it turns out having a blood draw, finding out your car’s brake lights aren’t working, dropping it off, getting it, having to rush to your son’s school to replace his insulin pod and then go pick up your wife from the doctor will delay an update for a good five hours.

Before I go into the acting categories, a brief note on the guilds.  Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is now the 34th film to earn ACE, CAS, ADG and CDG noms.  Of the first 33, 23 earned Best Picture noms.  But, if Hollywood earns a ASC nom those numbers go up to 18 out of 20 with just Dark Knight and Skyfall falling short.  Hollywood is clearly the guild film of the year with 9 nominations already and a good chance of 5 more (actually 4 because I forgot for a minute that Tarantino is not a WAG member and thus the film isn’t eligible).

Supporting Actress:  The Nicole Kidman nomination was a surprise.  It’s bad news for Kathy Bates.  Only two Supporting Actress Oscar nominations have come from performances that missed out on both the BFCA and SAG but got a Globe nom: Saoirse Ronan in 2007 and Sally Hawkins in 2013.  So who is in?  Well, there have been 71 performances before this year that earned BFCA and SAG noms and 64 of them went on to Oscar noms.  So that should be good for Lopez, Dern, Robbie and Scarlett, right?  Scarlett is missing a Globe nom but of the 7 performances that didn’t earn Oscar noms four of them had Globe noms.  Nine performances earned BFCA and SAG noms but not a Globe nom and six of them went on to earn Oscar noms, most recently Rachel McAdams in 2015 and only three of those (and McAdams wasn’t one of them) had BAFTA noms.  Nicole Kidman has a shot at that fifth nomination but it’s been 12 years since someone with a SAG nom but no BFCA or Globe nom earned an Oscar nom.  But that’s better odds for Kidman and Bates than for Florence Pugh or Zhao Shuzhen.  The only person in this category to ever earn a BFCA nom but not a SAG or Globe nom to earn an Oscar nom was Marcia Gay Harden back in 2003.  Also, let’s remember that last year the fifth Oscar nominee, Marina de Tavira, had no precursor noms.

Supporting Actor:  There are never any guarantees of course, but Pitt, Hanks, Pacino and Pesci should be in good shape.  Only three performances have earned SAG, Globe and BFCA noms and not earned Oscar noms, though they are all fairly recently (Daniel Bruhl in 2013, Michael Shannon in 2015, Timothee Chalemet last year).  But last year, the Oscars went with the Globe nominee who didn’t have a SAG nomination and the SAG nominee who didn’t have a Globe nom.  There’s nobody like that this year.  Jamie Foxx has the 5th SAG nom but of the three actors who parlayed a SAG nom without a Globe or BFCA nom into an Oscar nom, one had two critics wins (Jackie Earl Haley) and the other two came from Picture nominees (John Hawkes, Woody Harrelson).  Willem Dafoe is a BFCA nom but in essence he’s the 6th nominee since he didn’t have a Globe nom and that rarely earns an Oscar nom.  Anthony Hopkins has a Globe and BFCA but no SAG and that earns an Oscar nom half the time.  So, barring surprises from BAFTA (not till next month), Hopkins is still the best bet.

Actor:  Leo, Driver and Phoenix are in the best shape, obviously, with BFCA, Globe and SAG noms.  It’s no guarantee (8 actors have fallen short with that and one of those had two critics wins and two others had BAFTA noms) but it’s the best you can get.  That leaves six serious contenders for two remaining spots.  Two of them – Robert De Niro and Adam Sandler – are in serious trouble.  Since SAG began, only eight performances have earned an Oscar nomination in Best Actor without either a SAG or Globe nom and oddly none of them had a BFCA nomination – three had BAFTA noms and the other five had no precursors.  And Sandler’s NYFC award doesn’t help – three of the people who failed to earn Oscar noms had NYFC noms.  That brings us down to four.  There’s Eddie Murphy and Antonio Banderas next.  Murphy would kind of need a Globe win.  Of the six performances with a BFCA and Globe – Comedy nom but no SAG nom only three earned Oscar noms and two of those (Johnny Depp in 2007, Matt Damon in 2015) won the Globe.  Antonio Banderas doesn’t really have an exact comparison – four critics winners earned Globe – Drama and BFCA nom but no SAG nom and only Phoenix in 2012 was nominated.  But Banderas has two critics wins and that might help.  But that still leaves two performances for one spot – Christian Bale and Taron Egerton.  History suggests Bale.  31 performances earned Globe and SAG noms and of those, 25 earned Oscar noms.  But Bale is Drama nominated where the numbers are 22 out of 23 (only John David Washington last year fell short) while Egerton is a Comedy nom (3 out of 7).  But, watch the BAFTA’s – if the BAFTA line-up includes Egerton and not Bale, he’s a much better bet.

Actress:  The big shocker of seeing Saoirse Ronan being passed over by SAG (although she was also passed over in 2007 – maybe her fellow SAG actors can’t get over how good she is at such a young age) has made this an interesting race and no one should feel comfortable.  In the previous eight years, seven of them (all but 2015) had at least six strong candidates going into the Oscars, or, in some cases, five strong candidates and one surprising Oscar nominee who knocked out one of those strong candidates.  I’ll just point out that in none of those races did the Oscars and SAG line-up 5/5.  There are six strong candidates: Zellweger, Nyong’o, Erivo, Johansson, Theron, Ronan, in that order currently in the Consensus list.    Ronan might be hurt by a lack of total love for Little Women (see below) but Nyong’o, who didn’t earn a Globe nom and might be considered the weak link has the advantage of a film that made more money than the other five films put together and has been out on DVD and easy to see for months.

Picture:  The front-runners are still Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Irishman and Joker and they’ve all had strong guild support.  Jojo Rabbit has had solid support.  1917 hasn’t been helped too much but I wouldn’t panic until the ASC and DGA chime in (it was always unlikely to have SAG noms).  Marriage Story is solid though it’s the first film since Up in the Air a decade ago to earn three SAG noms but not an Ensemble nomination.  Little Women has taken a serious hit, missing out on categories it should have done well in: acting, Art Direction, Costume Design.  It’s not done.  True, both Inside Llewyn Davis and Carol were undone by lack of guild support but Atonement, another Ronan film, only had four noms (none from the major guilds) and recent Best Picture nominees with very little guild support including a complete lack of SAG noms are Selma and Phantom Thread.  But Little Women really could use a WGA nom and if it doesn’t get one that is a bad sign.  But the big surprise here is BombshellBombshell is just the 22nd film to earn at least 4 SAG noms and only two of those, both of them back in the 5 BP Era (Into the Wild, Doubt) earned Oscar noms for Best Picture.  Bombshell needed a boost and it definitely got one today.

Tomorrow is the MPSE but they’re the least important guild, in part because they have so many categories and thus a ton of nominees.  So if I finish the next post before Saturday, that will go up.  If not, the next update should be Monday (the Boston critics are this weekend but again, critics don’t factor that much into the Oscar noms) when the Oscars release their shortlists in Score, Visual Effects, Song and Makeup (and Foreign Film?).  But either way, this post will come off sticky when the next post after Monday is ready and will probably go back up late on Friday the 3rd when the ASC kicks off the next round of guilds.

16 December:  Well the Academy finally gave us the lists – much later in the day than most other groups do things.  Before I get to that, we’ll look at the state of things so far.

Leading the way in total nominations and points is OUATiH with 35 noms and 1100 points, followed closely by Parasite (which is leading with 11 wins) and The IrishmanLittle Women rebounded with strong showings in Chicago and Boston and got its first guild nom (the MPSE).  Joker has no critics wins but hey, neither did Bohemian RhapsodyUncut Gems, on the other hand, given the awards it has won and the nominations it doesn’t have resembles nothing so much as it does First Reformed and that doesn’t bode well for it if it wants to compete for major Oscars.

So, now on to the Oscar shortlists:

International Film:  F.T. correctly predicted six of the final 10 and I think the five nominees will all come from his six with Parasite, Pain & Glory, Atlantics and Les Miserables all in really good shape (they all earned BFCA noms and all but Atlantics earned Globe noms) with Beanpole (Russia has done well) and The Painted Bird (distinguished source material) competing for the final spot.

Makeup:  I think it says something about how the Academy is viewing things in that Cats and The Irishman aren’t on the long-list here but they are for Visual Effects.  It looks like this category is finally graduating to a bigger status as it’s getting five nominees.  I never know what the Academy will do here (remember that in 2013 they passed over American Hustle in favor of Bad Grandpa and Lone Ranger).  I would be surprised if Joker and Dolemite aren’t nominated.  This is the only one of the lists where OUATiH was eligible and it’s on the list.

Visual Effects:  Interesting that Cats is on the shortlist but Ad Astra and Jumanji are not.  I expect Skywalker, Avengers and Lion King to get nominations but that last two are anyone’s guess.

Score:  Irishman had already been disqualified here.  I am surprised to see Frozen II here given their whole things about songs diluting a score.  1917, Joker, Marriage Story and Little Women all have BFCA and Globe noms and Little Women also has two critics wins.  Of the 40 films since 2006 to earn both noms, 29 have earned Oscar noms and at least two of the ones that didn’t weren’t Oscar eligible.

Song:  I’m on the record as not being a fan of documentaries getting nominations in this category and there are three this year on the list (including The Bronx, USA which the IMDb lists as an HBO film).  But there are also five Disney songs on the list so this could be all Disney (though I doubt it – I feel that the new song from Rocketman will probably get a nom).  I am surprised that the new song from Cats didn’t even make the list especially when yet another Diane Warren song did.  I’m also surprised that “Summer Song” from Yesterday didn’t make the list; it’s a not a great song but that’s kind of the point and it’s a lot better than Warren’s latest schmaltz.  I’m not surprised that there is only one song from Frozen II even though there could have easily been more – that seems to be the way they go with that which does make me surprised that both new songs from Lion King did make the list.

So that’s it until probably the day after the Globes (Monday the 6th) which will also be the WGA and VES noms (the ASC noms are the Thursday before).  After that, the post will probably stay on sticky through all of January.

3 January:  I won’t stick this to the top until Sunday night but a few (actually, apparently by “a few” I mean seven) quick points on the ASC nominations.

  • The ASC and BFCA matched up 5 for 5.  That’s never happened before.  The only year with 5 BFCA nominees where they all earned ASC nominations (2013), there were 7 ASC nominees.
  • Of the 38 films to earn nominations from both groups, 34 of them earned Oscar noms which is good news for Irishman, Hollywood, Joker, Ford and 1917.
  • However, of the four that didn’t, three of them also had BAFTA nominations (Les Mis, 12 Years a Slave, First Man) which made their Oscar omission even more inexplicable (that last one is really inexplicable to me).  For the record, the fourth film was Nine.
  • Should Portrait of a Lady on Fire be expecting an Oscar nomination based on its three critics wins?  History says no.  Four films before this year won at least three critics awards but failed to earn an ASC nomination: Wings of Desire, Barton Fink, Ed Wood, The Master.  Know what else those films have in common?  None of them earned an Oscar nomination for Cinematography.
  • Hollywood can definitely expect a Picture nomination at the Oscars (plus PGA and DGA noms – it’s ineligible for the WGA).  Prior to this year, 11 films earned ACE, ASC, CAS, ADG, MPSE, CDG and SAG Ensemble noms and all of them earned PGA and DGA noms on their way to Oscar noms for Picture.
  • But what will happen at the guilds is another story.  Of those 11 films, five of them won the PGA amidst winning at least 8 guild awards.  Of those five, four also won the DGA and won Picture and Director at the Oscars (American Beauty, Return of the King, Slumdog, Birdman) while the fifth (Aviator) stumbled at the DGA and the Oscars.
  • However, the other six films managed to go just a combined 13 for 81 at the guilds, none of them winning more than three awards, all of them losing the PGA, DGA and SAG Ensemble with only one winning the WGA and one winning ACE and they all lost more than they won at the Oscars.  Those six films: Seabiscuit, Social Network, Black Swan, Les Mis, Lincoln, A Star is Born.

5 January:  I am putting this back up to the top now because I have decided that I will react to each of the Globe categories as they happen tonight.  As has been the case over the last few years, I will probably be rather coy concerning what films I have or have not seen.

  • Foreign Film:  Parasite wins in the easiest award of the night to predict.  The only question is whether or not Parasite can make the leap that Roma couldn’t quite do last year and win the Oscar for Best Picture.  Because of my revision to how I calculate the Consensus (if a foreign film wins Picture at a critics group I give it 50 instead of just ignoring it like I used to do), it’s already the fifth highest film in history behind only Amour, All About My Mother, Roma and Crouching Tiger without the BAFTAs or Oscars even having done their nominations.
  • Ellen:  I will just mention that when Ellen thanked “my husband Mark”, Veronica spit her milk back into her cup.  Plus, Ellen’s stand-up is some of my favorite of all-time, so I’m very glad to see her win this.
  • Screenplay:  Well, this won’t help Quentin tomorrow to earn a WGA nom because he’s not in the guild and isn’t eligible.  It’s the eighth time in the last nine years the Globe goes to an original script after only doing it twice in the 11 years before that.  Two of the last three Globe winners that were original didn’t win the Oscar but before that eight of the nine script before that won the Oscar.  It’s a good boost in a very tough category against Parasite and Marriage Story.  Also, don’t think this guarantees a Picture win for Hollywood later tonight.  The last three Screenplay winners did win Picture (and two of them were Comedy / Musical) but the winner before that wasn’t even Picture nominated (Steve Jobs) and from 2006 to 2015, only two Screenplay winners at the Globes also won Picture.
  • Animated Film:  That was a surprise and no question (the filmmakers look stunned).  This puts the Oscar very much up in the air.  I enjoyed Missing Link a lot and it was going to be my under-appreciated film of the year until the Cats backlash.  Two Laika films have won critics groups but before tonight, the Laika films had been a combined 1 for 23 at the six awards groups (Kubo won the BAFTA) so this is a big deal.  With Frozen II and Toy Story 4 winning one critics group each and I Lost My Body not nominated tonight this really puts the Oscar up in the air.  We’ll have more ideas on Tuesday when the PGA and the BAFTA (which only do three) noms hit.
  • Supporting Actress:  This is a good sign for Dern.  Winning critics awards is one thing, but winning at the Globes can presage big wins among the awards groups.  No Globe winner with at least three critics wins in this category has ever lost the Oscar (Streep, Steenburgen, Lange, Ashcroft, Ruehl, Wiest, M’Onique, Arquette, King).
  • Song:  I’m actually a little disappointed by the choice though happy for Elton.  I personally have “Beautiful Ghosts”, “Into the Unknown” and “Speechless” at close to a three way tie on my own list.  This may not mean anything.  From 2004 to 2011 only one Globe winner even managed an Oscar nom.  But for the last seven years, five have won the Oscar and the other two earned noms so who knows.
  • Director:  Surprised this is so early.  Even more surprised that Sam Mendes wins – that presumably locks him in to the fourth slot along Bong, Marty and Quentin leaving the couple (Baumbach and Gerwig) to compete for that fifth slot at the DGA and Oscars.  That’s six awards given to six different films tonight.  Mendes is the first to win the Globe without even a place finish at any of the critics awards since James Cameron in 2009 and just the second since Mel Gibson in 1995.  This makes the first time since 2002 that four different directors won one of the six critics awards (three for Bong, one each for Quentin, Greta, Safdie Brothers) and none of them won the Globe.  In 2002, the Globe winner was actually Marty (the critics gave two to Polanski, two to Haynes and one each to Almodovar and Philip Noyce) and Marty didn’t win the Oscar of course.  For the record, the Consensus at the moment goes in this order: Bong (by a long way), Quentin, Greta, Marty, Safdie Brothers followed by Mendes, Noah Baumbach and James Mangold.
  • Score:  And we continue to have no multiple wins for a film as Joker wins.  This award is often meaningless at the Oscars (last year First Man won at the Globes and insanely wasn’t even nominated at the Oscars).  From 2007 to 2012 every Globe winner won the Oscar.  From 2013 to 2018, only two did so and two of the Globe winners weren’t even Oscar nominated.  But I think it’s got a good chance at the Oscars.  This is the first win for Joker that I track (it was blanked at the critics); it was up to 21 noms.  Now the nom leaders without a win are Jojo Rabbit, Bombshell and Ford v Ferrari with 12 each.
  • Supporting Actor:  In my Christmas letter to two of my closest film obsessed friends (one works at the Last Bookstore in L.A., the other is a member of the Boston Society of Film Critics), I wrote “I can’t believe I live in a world where I’m rooting for Brad Pitt to win the Oscar.”  I’m glad he won here.  Pitt’s the 26th Supporting Actor to win at least 5 awards.  Of those, 22 won the Oscar and of the other four, three of them didn’t win the Globe (Ralph Fiennes, Thomas Haden Church, Willem Dafoe) which means Pitt either wins the Oscar or joins Burt Reynolds in ignominy.
  • Actor – Comedy / Musical:  I prefer Leo but I’m all good with this as well.  I think Egerton’s work is superior to the Oscar winning performance from Rami Malek from last year.  After seven awards to seven different films, the last two are both for films that already won tonight.
  • Actress – Comedy / Musical:  This at least gives Awkwafina a chance for an Oscar nomination but it will be tough given there are already six serious contenders for five spots even before her.
  • Picture – Comedy / Musical:  Not exactly a surprise in a great field that Hollywood wins.  For the record, it’s the fifth film to win Picture – Comedy and Screenplay but lose Director.  Of the first four there are two Oscar winners (Shakespeare in Love, Green Book) and two nominees (Lost in Translation, Sideways).
  • Actor – Drama:  Phoenix wins making this the third year in a row that none of the critics winners win either Globe award.  It’s worth noting that four of the last six Oscar winner failed to win a critics award but did win the Globe – Drama (McConaghy, Redmayne, Oldman, Malek) so that’s a big boost to Phoenix who is among the most talented actors currently working without an Oscar.
  • Actress – Drama:  This does put Renee in the front-runner spot for a tight 6 or 7 way race.  The BAFTA noms on Tuesday will really help give us a clue as to who is in the Oscar race.
  • Picture – Drama:  I was wondering if Irishman would pull off a Bugsy / Babel / 12 Years a Slave / Moonlight win without any other wins but instead it’s 1917 and I began to wonder if this might happen after it won Director.  A good way to lead into its wide release this Friday (at least in the States) and I will admit I haven’t seen it because it hasn’t opened in San Diego yet.

Tomorrow, I’ll respond to the WGA as soon as I see it.  Tuesday will be a bit different because it takes more time to deal with BAFTA / DGA / PGA noms (a big day) and they’ll be staggered because of time zones and I work until 4 my time, so expect nothing (not even comments being approved) until late in the day PST.

6 January:  The WGA has chimed in.  I’m pretty certain The Farewell wasn’t eligible which makes for an interesting race.  Parasite, Marriage Story and Knives Out are in and replacing Farewell and Hollywood are 1917 and Booksmart.  Honestly, I feel that Parasite, Marriage Story and Hollywood are locks with Knives Out, especially given its rising box office, is very solid.  That leaves the other three and any potential surprises to compete for a fifth spot in a very competitive category.

For the record, Parasite is the fifth Foreign film to be WGA nominated (they’re usually not eligible) joining El Norte (foreign language but American made), Crouching Tiger, Motorcycle Diaries and Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

In Adapted, the BFCA nominated six but the one that’s out at the WGA is Two Popes which earned a Globe nom.  I think Irishman, Jojo and Little Women are safe (in fact, given the blowback for no women directors and that Greta lost both her Oscar nominations two years ago, I think there’s a good chance she wins both the WGA and the Oscar) and that the film that doesn’t make the Oscar cut is either Popes, Beautiful Day or Joker.  But you never know.  There have already been 10 films this decade that didn’t earn Oscar noms in spite of WGA and BFCA noms, two of which were Best Picture nominated (Help, Black Panther) and three of which had both Globe and BAFTA noms as well (Gone Girl, Steve Jobs, Nocturnal Animals, with Jobs actually winning the Globe).

7 January:  First, a reminder that unless you comment really quick after the update, it will be at least 11 hours before your comment is approved so be patient.

A couple of quick notes on the BAFTAs as a whole.  There’s been much talk of Oscar So White this year which probably won’t happen (Nyong’o, Erivo, Lopez, possibly but probably not Murphy) but this was very much BAFTAs So White.  Every acting nominee is white, made even more clear because of the way their website shows the nominations.  Second, you’ll see a lot of mention of how Joker is the big winner and that is definitely true, as it is tied for the lead with 10 noms (I’m not including the Casting category at the moment).  But on the point system, it’s behind Irishman and only an odd Cinematography snub for Hollywood ahead of that film in spite of the 10 noms for the former and 9 for the latter.  I wasn’t expecting the BAFTAs to go so strong for Joker when they passed over Dark Knight in the big three categories but they did.  This is also massive damage to Oscar hopes for Uncut Gems.  The last film to earn more than 45 points at the Oscars with complete BAFTA, guild and Globe snubs was Pollock back in 2000.

Also, I won’t cover Picture or Director for now.  I will cover those in 12 hours or so after I am home from work and the PGA and DGA have chimed in.  I will also only be covering the major categories that I do the Consensus for and not the other Tech categories.

Also remember that Oscar voters are still voting, so the Globes and BAFTAs are on the mind of the people who haven’t voted yet.

  • Foreign Film:  No changes here since the BAFTAs only nominated two eligible Oscar films (Parasite, Pain and Glory).
  • Animated Film:  The BAFTAs went with four for only the second time ever but it’s kind of irrelevant since the fourth nominee (the new Shaun the Sheep movie) won’t be Oscar eligible until next year because Netflix ended up with distribution rights and pushed it to January.  I wonder now if they did so as not to compete with their own eligible films like Klaus, which was the third nominee or I Lost My Body which wasn’t nominated.  Since the BAFTAs added the category in 2006 every Oscar winner has received a BAFTA nom so this is good news for either Frozen II or Toy Story 4Wreck-It-Ralph and How to Train Your Dragon 2 ended up ahead of the Oscar winners and The Wind Rises was the Consensus winner until Oscar night; all were BAFTA snubs and all lost the Oscar.
  • Cinematography:  As I said, Hollywood was oddly snubbed in favor of The Lighthouse (not odd for a nom for The Lighthouse but just the snub for Hollywood).  Given that Ralph Richardson, one of the most decorated cinematographers in Oscar history (the only active cinematographer with more Oscar points is Roger Deakins, who will likely win his second Oscar for 1917 after finally winning his first just two years with his 14th nomination).
  • Original Screenplay:  This seems to cement Hollywood, Parasite, Marriage Story and Knives Out as Oscar nominees leaving Booksmart, The Farewell or even 1917 to compete for that fifth spot.
  • Adapted Screenplay:  This undoes some of the damage from the WGA snub of Two Popes (see comments for more on that).  After this, I would say the likely Oscar nominees are the BAFTA nominees: Irishman, Little Women, Joker, Jojo, Popes.
  • Supporting Actress:  This doesn’t actually hurt J-Lo that much because Robbie can’t be nominated twice at the Oscars.  It does really help ScarJo and Pugh.  At this point, the best guess for the Oscar nominees is Dern, J-Lo, ScarJo, Pugh and Robbie.
  • Supporting Actor:  As if we needed any more proof that the Oscar lineup will be four former winners and Brad Pitt, BAFTA just confirmed it.  Amazingly enough, this is the first time the BAFTAs and Globes have ever had 5/5 matchup in this category.  That they all have BFCA noms and four of the five have SAG noms makes it a good lock.  If you’re hoping to win big money on an Oscar upset nomination this is the category to play with (Dafoe or Foxx).  Only two actors have ever passed over with SAG / Globe / BAFTA / BFCA noms (Bruhl in 2013, Chalemet last year).
  • Actor:  It’s a bad sign for Antonio Banderas (even though he’s though not impossible to overcome.  Just last year, Willem Dafoe overcame BAFTA and SAG snubs with BFCA and Globe noms to earn an Oscar nom.  But the competition is very tough now.  Driver, Phoenix and Leo have SAG, BAFTA, Globe and BFCA noms.  Egerton has the first three and a Globe win to boot.  So Banderas could still be nominee #5 (and I think there’s a good chance of that) but there’s also Bale, Pryce and Murphy or even De Niro coming in with a big Irishman push at the Oscars.
  • Actress:  Renee, ScarJo and Theron are the best bets with SAG, BAFTA, Globe and BFCA noms, though, I will point out yet again that four performances this decade had that resume and failed to earn an Oscar nom (Swinton in 2011, Cotillard in 2012, Thompson in 2013, Adams in 2016) so it’s not a guarantee.  Jessie Buckley can be safely ignored for Oscar purposes as the Brits rewarding their own.  The BAFTA nom for Ronan and strong reviews and box office for Little Women in general (it’s already made more than 1994 version) should help her overcome the SAG snub.  But does that mean that Erivo and Nyong’o are competing for the same spot?  Getting the five nominees in this category could probably help you win your Oscar nomination betting pool.  The BAFTA nom combined with the Globe win does mean that Renee is now at #1 in the Consensus spot.

One added little bit before I head off to work now that I have put in the points to the spreadsheet: the top eight films in points at the BAFTAs (Irishman, Joker, Hollywood, 1917, Parasite, Jojo, Little Women, Marriage Story) were already the top 8 films in points on the list for the year (though not in that same order – it goes, for total points Hollywood, Parasite, Irishman, Little Women, Marriage Story, Joker, 1917, Jojo) which speaks well for Oscar nominations for all of them but we’ll see what the PGA does.  I wouldn’t be surprised at a lineup with those eight with Two Popes (#14 overall but #10 at the BAFTAs) and Ford (#13, #12) with possible (and pleasant to my mind) surprises of Knives Out (#15 overall but low at the BAFTAs) or Rocketman (#10 overall and #9 at the BAFTAs).  For the record #9 overall right now is Uncut Gems.

7 January (later):  Well the PGA and DGA have chimed in.

  • Picture:  The easier category.  The PGA followed what I wrote above with the solid eight, one of the probables and one surprise.  Right now, your best bet if there are 8 Oscar nominees, it’s the first eight films.  If they go nine, you can flip between Ford and Knives Out but history suggests Ford for a couple of reasons.  First, Knives Out is missing a BFCA nom and no film has done the Globe / PGA noms but no BFCA or BAFTA route to the Oscars since 1995.  What’s more, each of the previous three years had a Globe – Comedy nom / PGA nom that didn’t make it in at the Oscars (Deadpool, I Tonya, Crazy Rich Asians).  Also, Ford is a Drama that missed out on a Globe nom but got PGA and BFCA noms and since the Oscar lineup expanded exactly half of the 12 films with that resume earned Oscar noms (127 Hours, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Dallas Buyers Club, Whiplash, Brooklyn, Fences).  I would love for Knives Out to earn a nomination but the better bet is Ford. What about The Two Popes you might ask?  And I’ll answer that it had no guild nominations, not a single one.  The last time a film earned an Oscar Best Picture nom without any guild noms?  Back in 1985 (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
  • Director:  The category outside of Actress where your bet on the fifth nominee will win your pool.  While nothing is ever a complete lock (ask Bradley Cooper and his DGA, BAFTA, Globe and BFCA noms, NBR win and CFC nom), it’s pretty solid that the first four will be Quentin, Marty, Bong and Mendes.  That leaves the fifth spot.  The BFCA split that three ways, going with seven nominees and choosing the Safdies as well as both halves of the couple of Greta and Noah.  Greta also has an NSFC win.  Todd Phillips has Globe and BAFTA noms.  And now Taika has the fifth DGA spot.  And except for the Safdies, they all seem solid for Picture as well, so four directors vying for one spot.  So, let’s deal with them one at a time.
    • Todd Phillips:  Acted like a douchebag around the time of the film’s release making many feel that he had talked himself out of an Oscar nom.  Earned Globe and BAFTA noms but no DGA and that’s only been 6 out of 19 who have turned that into an Oscar nom, two of those six had critics wins and one of the ones who didn’t had a Picture nominee (Quentin in 2012).  I think it’s very unlikely but it could happen.
    • Noah Baumbach:  A BFCA nom but no Globe, DGA or BAFTA.  Only David O. Russell in 2012 has turned that into an Oscar nom.  Quite unlikely.
    • Greta Gerwig:  Probably the best chance on the same kind of intangibles that Phillips lacks.  The lack of any female directors being heavily talked about during Oscar voting as well as the strong embrace from critics and box office could make the difference.  She, like her partner, is lacking Globe, DGA and BAFTA noms.  But she does have a critics win and two critics placements.  Plus, she’s been nominated before which the others don’t have and didn’t win for either directing or writing.  Personally, I’d love to see her nominated.
    • Taika Waititi:  I won’t pretend I’m not glad.  It’s already known that I’ve seen and loved the film and I like him a lot.  He’s only the third director to come out of nowhere (no critics noms or mentions, no Globe, BAFTA or BFCA nom) to earn a DGA nomination since 2003 but one of the other two earned an Oscar nom (Morten Tyldum – the one who didn’t was Garth Davis).  If the Academy really embraces the film (and the possibility of a ScarJo nomination might indicate that) they could go for him.  I think he’s your best bet outside of the reasons mentioned to bet on Greta.
    • someone else:  Aside from the idea that the directors might go for someone who didn’t write their film, since all four of the directors listed above are very likely to earn nominations for their writing even if they don’t get a directing nomination.  Plus, there’s history for less predictive choices.  P.T. Anderson’s nomination in 2017 could suggest something like the Safdie Brothers.  The Pawel Pawlikowski nomination last year could give us something like Pedro Almodovar (even though he lacks Pawlikowski’s BAFTA nom).  If Ford is a Picture nominee, James Mangold could leap straight from the Satellites to the Oscars like Lenny Abrahamson did in 2015.  The Bennett Miller nomination in 2014 was even more out of nowhere with nothing but a festival win and not even a Best Picture nomination to go with it.  So just remember – the Academy does things every year that make you go where the fuck did that come from?

Later this week I might chime in with some historical statistics.  I had originally planned to do another post but for reasons I’ll explain later, I probably won’t.

11 January:  A brief note, as mentioned, on historical statistics.

  • Comedies:  I have been working on the Comedy post for my Century of Film series.  Only four films that I classify primarily as a Comedy have ever earned 50 or more nominations, two with 52 (The Artist, The Favourite) and one each with 51 (Shakespeare in Love) and 50 (The Grand Budapest Hotel).  But Hollywood, which I do classify primarily as a Comedy, is already at 48 before the Oscar nominations even happen, so it’s poised to smash that record.
  • Total Nominations:  Right now, the Top 10 cuts off at 58.  I’m predicting The Irishman (which is also at 48) to get 12, which would put it at 60 and in 7th place all-time behind Lincoln, Shape of Water, La La Land, Social Network, 12 Years a Slave and Birdman.
  • Right now, the Top 10 for most nominations without a win cuts off at 16.  That would put two films on the list already: Jojo Rabbit (21) and Ford (17).  I have Jojo with 5 and Ford with 4.  If they both continue to win nothing (I think Ford could easily win at the MPSE), that would put them at 2nd and 5th.  The top 4 right now are Frost/Nixon (28), Mary Poppins Returns (26), Nine (24) and The Sixth Sense (20).

Predictions: I had originally planned to put up a new post on Thursday.  RKO is almost ready, as is DreamWorks.  I had hoped to have DreamWorks be next because I just posted the 1997 Adapted Screenplay and that’s the first year of DreamWorks film releases but since I haven’t seen 1917 and it’s a DreamWorks film it seemed dumb to put it up before I see that.  But, in the end, I didn’t want to have to put up a post and then sticky this post above it just a couple of days later for the BFCA reaction, so I’m doing this instead.

I’m gonna go ahead and make predictions for the categories for Monday’s Oscar nominations.  Feel free to comment on the nominations here though I’ll get the post about trivia up as soon as I can get it done and that’s a better place to comment.

I’m using my own predictions but they’re not that different from other people’s, including constant commenter mountanto.  I didn’t comment on his picks, but only because I’m doing my own here.  They’re, in my opinion, a very good group of predictions.

  • Foreign Film:  Parasite, Pain and Glory, Les Miserables, Atlantics, Painted Bird
    • This bunch is often different than you expect so I expect to be wrong on at least one of those.  Only four of them already have noms from other groups but of the other six semi-finalists, none have a nom anywhere else, so I’m going with the one based on a brilliant book.
  • Animated Film:  Toy Story 4, Frozen II, Missing Link, I Lost My Body, Weathering with You
    • I could also be wrong here.  But here’s a fact that no one, including GoldDerby, has pointed out (probably because no one else has my spreadsheets): GKIDS has managed a nomination six years in a row.  Also, the Academy has a tendency to skip films with lots of noms.  There’s still a good chance I Lost My Body gets passed over for Dragon or even Klaus, but I’m definitely sticking with Weathering with You.
  • Song:  Frozen II, Rocketman, Lion King, Harriet, Breakthrough
    • GoldDerby ignored what mountanto did not: the Academy loves to nominate the latest schmaltz from Diane Warren.  So, I’m ignoring what I think is great and going with my gut of what the Academy likes.
  • Makeup:  Joker, Judy, Rocketman, Bombshell, Dolemite
    • I don’t recall seeing anything that the Academy was going to five nominees (finally) but mountanto seems to have and there were 10 semi-finalists.  This branch is often odd, but I’m focusing more on what they’ll think about the hair than the actual makeup.
  • Costume Design:  Hollywood, Irishman, Rocketman, Little Women, Downton Abbey
    • I think Irishman (skipped at CDG but BAFTA and BFCA noms) will sneak in with a big haul but that could easily go to Dolemite.
  • Sound Editing:  1917, Ford, Irishman, Star Wars, Joker
    • I originally had Hollywood here but I think Joker might pull that spot.
  • Visual Effects:  Star Wars, Avengers, Lion King, Irishman, Alita
    • If 1917 has a bigger day than I think, it might get in here.  I went with Alita as it was so big at the VES.
  • Production Design:  Hollywood, Irishman, Joker, Jojo, Rocketman
  • Sound Mixing:  1917, Ford, Irishman, Joker, Rocketman
    • It doesn’t often match SE 5/5 so I bounced Star Wars from my list for Rocketman, especially since the Academy loves Musicals here.
  • Score:  Joker, Star Wars, Jojo, Marriage Story, Little Women
    • I do think the Academy will nominate John Williams one final time for Star Wars.
  • Cinematography:  Hollywood, Irishman, 1917, Ford, Joker
    • These 5 are both the ASC and BFCA nominees and 4 of the 5 (all but Hollywood) were BAFTA nominees.
  • Editing:  Irishman, Hollywood, Parasite, Jojo, Ford
    • The Academy didn’t nominate Birdman so I don’t think they’ll nominate 1917.
  • Supporting Actress:  Dern, Robbie, ScarJo, J-Lo, Pugh
    • I made this argument up above.
  • Supporting Actor:  Pitt, Pesci, Pacino, Hanks, Hopkins
    • Hopkins is the most likely to get bumped but I think it will be this great top five.
  • Actress:  Renee, ScarJo, Theron, Ronan, Erivo
    • If Erivo and Nyong’o both make it, I can’t see who doesn’t, since I think Ronan will be helped by Little Women doing well.
  • Actor:  Phoenix, Bale, Egerton, Driver, Banderas
  • Screenplay:  Hollywood, Parasite, Marriage Story, Knives Out, Farewell
    • I feel good about the first 4.  The last one could easily be 1917 or Uncut Gems or Booksmart.
  • A Screenplay:  Irishman, Little Women, Joker, Jojo, Two Popes
  • Director:  Quentin, Marty, Bong, Mendes, Greta
  • Picture:  Hollywood, Irishman, Parasite, 1917, Little Women, Joker, Jojo, Marriage Story, Ford (if 9), Knives Out (if 10 but unlikely)

There you have it.  Those are the ones I will write down for Monday morning to more easily react to the noms (quick cross out and replace if I’m wrong).  It often takes a few hours to do the trivia piece.  Then this post will probably go back up as a sticky the following weekend after the PGA and SAG and we can all start talking about what will win instead of what will be nominated.

12 January:  Well, we’re less than 12 hours away from the Oscar nominations but let’s talk about the potential winners a little.

  • Screenplay / A Screenplay:  Quentin was already in good shape to win and the BFCA win just confirms that.  My “Greta wins for writing” theory looks better after her BFCA win.
  • Actor:  Only George Clooney (2011) has won the BFCA and Globe – Drama and not won the Oscar since 2002 so Phoenix looks very strong.
  • Supporting Actor:  Only Murphy and Stallone have ever won the Globe and BFCA and not won the Oscar, though, to be fair, prior to 2006 only two actors in this category had even managed to win both the BFCA and Globe.  Still, Pitt looks in great shape – just getting an Oscar nomination will put him in 12th place all-time and behind only two who didn’t win the Oscar (Dafoe, Church).
  • Actress:  Renee isn’t safe yet.  Just last year, Glenn Close won the Globe and BFCA and only half the Oscar winners in the last 12 years have won the BFCA first.  But Renee is still in first place in what hasn’t been a field dominated by any one actress.
  • Supporting Actress:  Unlike this category where Dern is dominating.  She’s tied for 20th all-time with the Oscar nominations not even announced.  Also, no BFCA winner has lost at the Oscars since Amy Ryan in 2007.
  • Director:  I just don’t know.  Let’s wait and see the nominees.
  • Picture:  I’ve felt since the day I saw it that Hollywood would win Best Picture.  But Social Network, Boyhood and La La Land all won the Globe and the BFCA, so we’ll see.

One last note on the BFCA.  So far, I’ve never included their Ensemble category.  That means, according to my spreadsheet, The Irishman just broke the record The Favourite set last year (when it went 0 for 11) by going for 0 for 13.

18 January:  The ACE Eddies were last night.  Had Hollywood not already failed to earn an Oscar nomination, I would have thought this was a bad sign but now I think it’s negligible.  But all three wins are worth mentioning.  First, Toy Story 4 won and The LEGO Movie is the only film to win the Animated Eddie (begun in 2009) not to win the Oscar for Best Animated Film.  Second, Jojo Rabbit won, which means it won’t sit at second place all-time behind Frost/Nixon with 27 noms and no wins.  Third, Parasite won and that’s notable in and of itself, since it’s the first Foreign film to win and was only the fifth to earn a nomination.  But, Irishman didn’t win.  Now, that doesn’t mean Parasite will win Best Picture (no ACE winner has done so since Argo) and in fact doesn’t even mean Irishman won’t win the Oscar for Editing.  In the last eight years, half the Oscar winners (Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Gravity, Whiplash, Hacksaw Ridge) didn’t win at ACE.  But half did and before that 10 out of the previous 10 Oscar winners won at ACE.  But it’s not a good sign for a film that went through the Globes and BFCA without winning anything (at least anything with a corresponding Oscar category).

19 January:  At this point, with Toy Story 4 having won the PGA, I won’t mention Animated Film again unless something else wins an award and provides a competitive race.

Best Picture, however, has now become a different story.  With the BFCA and Globe – Comedy wins, Hollywood looked very strong.  But 1917 won Picture – Drama and Director at the Globes and has now won the PGA.  So what does history say?

This is the 31st year of the PGA Awards.  Of the first 31 PGA winners (Gravity and 12 Years tied), 21 went on to win the Oscar.  Everyone likes to point out that PGA has the same preferential ballot system the Academy has, so they should line up, right?  Well, Big Short and La La Land both won the PGA so it hasn’t necessarily been the case lately.  What’s more, La La Land‘s sweep of the first four awards groups begs the question of what can happen.  Let’s narrow things further.  1917 also won the Globe.  That eliminates 11 films, six of which won the Oscar.  But it lost the BFCA, eliminating reducing our number to just five precedents and really just three if we take out the two Comedy Globe winners (Moulin Rouge, Green Book).  So, three films have lost the BFCA, won the Globe – Drama and won the PGA.  The first two, English Patient and Titanic, were dominant Oscar nominees (far more nominations than anything else) and won the Oscar but so was the third (The Aviator) and it didn’t win the Oscar.  The key precedent in 2004 was the DGA and when Marty lost that, it was a big sign that Oscar wasn’t happening.

But the DGA might not be helpful any longer.  In 2004, when Marty lost the DGA, 15 of the previous 18 DGA winners went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars including Chicago which didn’t win Director at the Oscars.  But, in the 14 years since Marty lost the Oscar (before this year), only 9 of those have gone on to win the Oscar and four of those misses have come in the last six years.  What’s interesting is that all of them have gone on to win the Oscar for Director except for Affleck who wasn’t nominated.  So, in all honesty, pick the DGA winner to win the Oscar for Director but with Picture you just never know what the Academy will do.

20 January:  Well, the acting races seem to be done and boring.  Picture, however, is not and is not.

Parasite is an unprecedented winner of the SAG Ensemble of course, the first Foreign film to win the award.  It’s also just the fourth film to win without any individual nominations and joining Black Panther as just the second since 2003.  It’s hard to say what this might mean for Best Picture.  Of the first 24 winner, 11 of them went on to win the Oscar with Crash the most notable since that was by far its biggest win before Oscar night.  However, Crash was also one of just 3 films to win SAG Ensemble and go on to win the Oscar without winning the PGA and 1917 won the PGA.  If Parasite were to win the Oscar it would be the first SAG winner to win the Oscar in four years but then again it’s also the first SAG winner to earn a Director nomination in four years.

Honestly, at this point correctly guessing Best Picture is the best way to win your Oscar pool.  The Academy can keep you guessing not only up the envelope is opened but sometimes even a few minutes after that.  Let’s look at some of the old rules.

  • You Have to Have a Director’s Nomination
    • 1933-2011 with one exception
    • Argo broke that rule and Green Book added on to that.
  • You Have to Have an Editing Nomination
    • 1981-2013
    • Birdman broke that rule and 1917 might put it to rest.
  • Winning Big
    • 1977-2011 with one exception
    • Argo was just the second BP since Rocky to win three or fewer Oscars.  But since then only two have won more than three and none more than four.
  • Nominated Big
    • 1982-2003
    • In that 22 year stretch, 20 BP winners either had the most or tied for the most nominations in the year.  In that 15 years after that?  Just four.
  • The Other Awards
    • 2008-2013
    • In that six year stretch, every BP won the BAFTA and the PGA, five won the BFCA and four won the Globe.  Starting in 2014, here are the stats: 0 BAFTA winners, 2 Globe winners, 3 PGA winners, 2 BFCA winners with no film winning more than two.  The last time before this stretch that five straight Oscar winners failed to win the BAFTA?  1988-1992.  It hasn’t been six straight since 1951-56 so this could make the BAFTA Awards interesting.

And one last little note until a lot more guilds chime in on Saturday: Ford won one of the MPSE awards last night which means it won’t land at fourth place all-time for most nominations without a win.

26 January:  So, three guilds chimed in last night.  But did we learn anything?

Sound:  No.  The CAS gave the award to Ford.  However, 2017 wasn’t nominated.  And don’t think that lack of a nomination at CAS stops Ford from winning the Oscar; it didn’t stop Whiplash.  In fact, three of the previous five Oscar winners didn’t win the CAS.  What’s more, the Academy gives the Oscar to War films at a pace unlike any other category (one of every three nominated War films win the award).

Animated Film:  Probably not.  Klaus and I Lost My Body won the two awards but the Annies have been outliers before.  From 2006 to 2014, in every even year the Annie winner failed to win the Oscar.  And let’s remember that includes two Pixar films that utterly dominated the Consensus and won the Oscar (Wall-E, Toy Story 3) yet didn’t win the Annie.  There certainly could be a surprise; Big Hero 6 won the Oscar in 2014 without any previous wins but that was partially because the Consensus winner (LEGO Movie) wasn’t nominated.  Of course, the kicker at the moment is that I Lost My Body is still the Consensus winner for now.  But the smart money is still on Toy Story 4.

Director:  Not so much learn something as confirm something.  I had hoped that this was the year Quentin won a long overdue directing Oscar, especially since Mendes already has one but that doesn’t seem to be the case.  Mendes had already won the Globe and BFCA and the Oscar had gone for that combo 13 of 16 times (all but Fincher, Affleck and Linklater).  But, even putting aside the BFCA, the DGA win should all but clinch it.  Only four directors (out of 41) have won the DGA and the Globe and not won the Oscar and ironically three of those actually won Picture at the Oscars (All the King’s Men, Godfather, Argo) just leaving Crouching Tiger as the outlier.  Affleck is the only director to win all three and fail to win the Oscar.  I’ll also point out, because it’s interesting, that of the 13 directors who won the BFCA, DGA and Globe, all won the Oscar (except Affleck) but five of them actually lost the BAFTA including, what do you know, Mendes in 1999.

Picture:  As I made clear before, this is still questionable.  1917 has probably become the frontrunner but there’s not guarantee.  Of the last five directors to be in this position (DGA, Globe wins), all won the Oscar for Director but four of them didn’t win Picture (Shape of Water is the exception).  Yes, 1917 won the PGA but so did Gravity, and La La Land.  It won the Globe but so did Revenant and La La Land.  It also didn’t win the BFCA which Spotlight and Shape of Water had.  So make your bets but I don’t recommend feeling comfortable about them.

28 January:  I was going to answer F.T.’s question about the Consensus winners in a comment but it started to get too long, so I’ve made it an update.

Consensus status as of this morning:

  • Picture  –  Parasite unless Irishman somehow wins BAFTA and Oscar in which case it squeaks into a win
  • Director  –  Bong Joon-ho by a long way
  • Actor  –  If Phoenix wins both he wins. If he fails to win one, Banderas wins. If Driver somehow wins both, he finishes just behind Banderas.
  • Actress  –  Renee wins the Consensus no matter what but if she fails to win either the BAFTA or Oscar, she’ll have the fewest Consensus points for a winner in seven years which was a very divided year (Chastain and Riva tied with Lawrence just behind).  Mary Kay Place’s two surprising critics wins make her the first Actress to win two awards and not earn a Consensus nomination (she’s in sixth and even that’s just barely above Erivo) since Naomi Watts in 2001.
  • Supporting Actor  –  Pitt by multiple miles – if he wins BAFTA and Oscar he has third most wins ever (9) behind Waltz and Simmons though 4th most points (Ali in 2016)
  • Supporting Actress  –  If Dern wins the BAFTA but somehow loses the Oscar, she breaks Metcalf’s Consensus points record for failing to win the Oscar.  If Dern wins both, she ties Regina King for the third most wins ever and ends up with the third most points ever behind M’Onique and Arquette.  The irony here is that there was clear groupthink in 2009 and 2014 and while I agree with both of 2009, I don’t agree with either of 2014’s winners (I had Norton a little bit above Simmons and I didn’t even think Arquette was worthy of a nomination let alone the win).
  • Adapted Screenplay  –  Right now, Irishman and Little Women are tied.  But Little Women won the BFCA (and the Scripter though I don’t count that) while Irishman hasn’t won anything at all since the critics awards.  There are three awards still to go here since the WGA hasn’t chimed in.  If Joker or Jojo swept the three, either of them would win the Consensus.  But, likely, the Consensus on this will be decided by the end of the weekend and not by the Oscar.
  • Original Screenplay  –  With Quentin not a WGA member, if Parasite wins, that would have them tied going into the BAFTAs and Oscars.  But Quentin won in head to head at the Globes and BFCA, so that gives Quentin a likely edge.  If Baumbach somehow swept all three, he would win the Consensus.
  • Cinematography  –  Deakins isn’t in first place by much but it’s over Claire Mathon (Portrait of a Lady on Fire) and she isn’t nominated for the BAFTA or Oscar so Deakins is assured of another Consensus win, almost but not exactly like his 2017 win if he wins both the BAFTA and Oscar (he won the NBR this time instead of the NSFC which leaves him 5 points lower).
  • Animated Film  –  I Lost My Body and Toy Story 4 have the same raw total but the former has a higher weighted total.  If Toy Story 4 wins the BAFTA it pulls ahead and unless Body wins the Oscar, Toy Story wins.  But, if Toy Story doesn’t win the BAFTA it has to win the Oscar to win the Consensus.  No other film can win the Consensus, though Farmageddon has a 20 point head start on the other films for next year.
  • Foreign Film  –  Because of my revamping of the Foreign Film award for critics wins for Picture (those count as 50 instead of 40), Parasite is already 2nd all-time.  If it wins both the BAFTA and Oscar it passes Amour into 1st in points because it won three Picture awards at the critics instead of two like Amour.  Like Amour and All About My Mother, it has been so dominant it has more points than all the other films combined.

2 February:  The guilds finished up last night.  Of the four ADG categories, Hollywood won the Period award and is widely expected to win the Oscar.  Parasite won the WGA but Hollywood wasn’t eligible; unless Parasite wins the BAFTA tonight, expect Quentin to win his third writing Oscar.  The more interesting one was Jojo winning the Adapted award at the WGA.  That doesn’t necessarily presage anything at the Oscars; last year the WGA gave the award to Can You Ever Forgive Me, passing by Consensus winner If Beale Street Could Talk and eventual Oscar winner BlackKklansman and gave the Original award to Eighth Grade which wasn’t even Oscar nominated.  The BAFTA will be a good sign for the Adapted award.

I’ll update after the BAFTA’s but because of the Super Bowl it might not be until tomorrow.  I’ll also add a note about later updates and comments then and hopefully a timeline.

2 February (later):  SPOILER WARNING – I AM DISCUSSING THE BAFTA’S WHICH HAVE NOT YET AIRED IN THE STATES

Well, the BAFTA’s wrapped things up pretty damn quick so it’s over not only well before they begin airing here in the States but well before the Super Bowl even starts.  We’re still going to watch them because I’m curious to see how Graham Norton does as host (I think he’ll be hilarious) but I already know all the winners.  So, here are a few bits now that all we have left is the Oscars (yes, the Indie Spirits are still left but I don’t care).

  1. No matter if Hollywood fails to win Screenplay (Parasite winning at the BAFTA’s was not a great sign for Hollywood) it’s still almost certain to be the Consensus total point winner.  Unless Parasite sweeps everything it’s nominated for, no other film can catch it.
  2. The Irishman came in the favorite and looks like it’s leaving like Gangs of New York did at the Oscars.  It has 57 total nominations, just outside the Top 10 all-time but only 7 wins.  Benjamin Button (55 noms, 8 wins) is the only other film with more than 50 noms and less than 10 wins and no other film with 50+ noms has fewer than 13 wins.
  3. 1917 simply dominated the BAFTA’s.  Seven wins, tied for the 2nd most all-time.  Only the third film under the current British Film system to win both Picture and British Film and the only film in BAFTA history to win both and win Director.
  4. That makes Mendes just the third director win British Film twice (Skyfall also won) since it was re-instituted in 1992 and the other two (Kevin MacDonald, James Marsh) each won once for a Documentary that had no other nominations.
  5. Both Screenplay Consensus awards now come down to the Oscar and they’re probably two of the awards with the most suspense now.
  6. After missing out on both PGA and Globe noms, Klaus has now won the Annie and the BAFTA.  I can’t really explain that.  It also proves that past results are no indication of future success.
  7. Mendes has already made history and is likely to make some more.  Of the 15 directors (including him) that have won the DGA, BAFTA and Globe, all of them except Milos Forman in 1975 either won a critics award or earned an honorable mention (or a nomination at Chicago).  Forman did that before the BFCA existed (which Mendes has also won) and when there were still only four critics groups (and in the first year of the LAFC).  In fact, if we limit it to just the 7 DGA-BAFTA-Globe-BFCA winners (even including Afflech who wasn’t Oscar nominated), all of them prior to Mendes were nominated in Chicago and earned at least a mention from one other group with all but Affleck winning at least one of the six critics awards.  But Mendes was overlooked in Chicago in favor of Baumbach and Greta and here he is, poised to win a second Oscar.

2 February:  COMMENTS REQUEST AND FUTURE POSTS – NO MORE BAFTA NEWS BELOW THIS POINT

First, this post will stay “sticky” for a few more days and then I will take it off and just leave the original Oscar nomination morning post at the top.  If you want to comment either during the Oscars or immediately after please do so on that post.

Second, within a few days after the Oscars, I will start putting up posts again, in roughly this order: Century (studio), AS: 1998, Century (genre), AS: 1999, Century (studio), AS: 2000.  That should easily cover the month of February.  I will continue to work on the Year in Film for 2019 and the Best Picture post but I probably won’t do it until I have seen all of the films listed below.  As I have seen 8 of the 9 Picture nominees and will be at all nine by the Oscar ceremony, I could move the Picture post up but I prefer to do it the way I have done it in the past, with the YiF post first followed a few days later by the Picture post.  There are still several noteworthy films I want to see first and I’ll need to wait until they’re on DVD.  The final film on the list is the one that seems like I need to see it before really making decisions and, since it was one of the last in on the list that was released in theaters, it will probably the last on DVD and thus the last one I see.  So, until you know that all of the following films are out on DVD please don’t ask when those two posts will be.  I’m working on them, I’m putting up other posts and those will go up when they are ready.  Thanks for all the comments from everybody during an odd Oscar season.

Need to See Before I Post the Year in Film post

  • Judy
  • Hustlers
  • Bombshell
  • The Lighthouse
  • Uncut Gems